It's very, very good. Better the most recent time I watched it than the first time I saw it.
Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Permission to Dream Colossally)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
Tom Herman put that into existence. I'm convinced of it.
The 2004 and 2024 teams are a very interesting comparison, but I actually think 2004 and 2023 are the most similar.
I love the 2004 team. I will go to my grave with the opinion that no one knew better how to stop the 2000s era Mike Leach Air Raid offenses than Greg Robinson. That was an incredible defense that perfected the bend don't break methodology. It was incredible what he was able to do in his only season (2013 kerfuffle not withstanding).
But that 2004 offense is a different story. That was a team that had to find its footing as the season progressed. I think it was the home game vs Mizzou that had people clamoring for VY to be moved to WR to pave the way for Perrilloux as a true freshman the next year. I think the game's leading passer was Ramonce Taylor throwing it to VY on an end around. I think it was the very next game when Texas committed to running the offense through VY and the zone read and never looked back.
While we knew our identity on offense much better in 2023, it was a team that had to figure how to win and close out games as the season wore on. The team was a work in progress, but grew before our eyes to become a complete team in the fourth quarter of the season. Both 2004 and 2023 lost some big time contributors in their respective seasons (DJ, El Ced, Scaife, etc. vs Worthy, Sweat, Murphy, Brooks, etc.) but the ground work was laid for the next year to come out firing on all cylinders.
Hopefully 2024 realizes its full potential the way 2005 did.
I just don't think it's all that hard.
There's only one team that is in a truly rarified air.
No love for Road to Perdition @Ketchum ? That’s top 5 Hanks for me.Less than a month ago, I wasn't ready to say that the 2024 Longhorns would beat the 2023 Longhorns on a neutral field.
That's no longer the case.
Through four weeks of the season, I find myself thinking that we're watching the second-best Texas team my eyes have seen in four decades of watching Texas football.
1. 2005
2. 2024
3. 2008
4. 2004
5. 2009/2023
This 2024 team is more talented and better on defense than the 2008 team. I'm not sure that the 2024 team is more talented than the 2004 team, but it is averaging almost twice as many yards per play than its opponents, which is the kind of absurdity that this current team is producing through four games.
Honestly, as exciting as the Texas offense is on a drive-by-drive basis behind Steve Sarkisian's play-calling, it's the defense that has me thinking that we're looking at a possible historically memorable kind of team.
When I say that the Texas passing game, especially its cornerbacks, is giving up nothing in the passing game, I mean they aren't giving up anything. Zero. Teams aren't even trying to throw at Malik Muhammad, Jahdae Barron or Jaylon Guilbeau. All three are playing like future NFL players.
The Longhorns have legit difference makers in the front six of the defense in Anthony Hill and Colin Simmons, who are on pace to combine for 12 sacks and 26 tackles for loss over 12 games, and only seem to be heating up.
Meanwhile, the deeper we get into the season, the more it becomes obvious that the Longhorns are likely going to be double-digit favorites in every game the rest of the way outside of the Georgia game next month. Outside of Carson Beck, the best quarterback that the Longhorns will see the rest of the way is likely ... Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia?
The only quarterbacks left on the schedule that are currently in the top 60 in individual passing efficiency are Georgia's Carson Beck (No. 24) and Pavia (No. 41). A&M's Marcel Reed ranks No. 61. Arkansas' Taylen Green is 90th. Kentucky's Brock Vandagriff is 91st. Oklahoma's Jackson Arnold is 100th.
In order to beat the Texas team, you're going to need to put up some points and I just don't see offenses that are going to be able to go toe to toe for 60 minutes.
I'm more bullish right now on this Texas team than I have been about any Texas team since 2005.
Enjoy every minute of it, fellas.
These are the best of times.
No. 2 - Pop-quiz ...
Do you know who the No. 4 quarterback in the country is in passing efficiency?
Hint: His jersey was sold out at DKR on Saturday.
I don't bring any of this up as a suggestion that Manning should start over Quinn Ewers (he shouldn't), but I do bring it up to remind everyone of the type of talent we're talking about.
Take a look at the stats that have been compiled by both Ewers and Manning thus far this season ...
Ewers: 58 of 79 (73.4%) for 691 yards, 8.7 yards per attempt, 8 TD, 2 INT and a 175.2 rating
Manning: 29 of 47 (61.7%) for 576 yards, 12.3 yards per attempt, 7 TD, 2 INT and a 205.3 rating
There's a pretty obvious story about the two players that you can see in the data.
Ewers ranks ninth in the country in completion percentage (73.4%) and 34th in yards per attempt (8.75). His specialty is dealing dimes in the short and intermediate passing games. Check out his passing map via PFF for the season.
Manning ranks third in the country in yards per attempt (12.26) and 81st in completion percentage (61.7). His specialty is attacking down the field and if you ever wondered which stat is more important, all you need to know is that Manning ranks third in passing efficiency, despite completing passes at a percentage similar to Jackson Arnold.
Check out his passing map.
Ewers throws the ball down the field beyond 20 yards once every 11.3 throws and between 11-20 yards once every 5.6 throws.
Manning throws the ball down the field beyond 20 yards once every 4.7 throws and between 11-20 yards once every 5.8 throws.
Eventually, Manning will improve his completion percentage (Ewers has gone from 58.1% to 69.0% to 73.4% in the last three seasons), but if his downfield aggression remains at an elite level, you can get a true picture of what the Texas offense might transform into in the next two seasons once Ewers is gone and Manning takes over for good.
While Manning likely won't average more than 12 yards per completion, just know that Sark's Alabama 2020 and 2019 offenses averaged 11 yards per completion in both seasons, which is more than two yards per completion more than Ewers' passing numbers this season and nearly three yards more per completion over his career.
It's two vastly different ways of playing the quarterback position. It might very well be that taking Manning's natural aggression and turning it down just a notch or two might have the future passing game reaching optimal levels.
No. 3 - Scattershooting the day after 52-3 ...
... Colin Page ranks third on the team in rushing (92 yards) and has the highest yards per carry (5.8) of any running back on the team.
... Colin Simmons finished Saturday night with almost as many game snaps as Trey Moore (24 to 20).
... We're 1/3 of the way into the season and Trey Moore still doesn't have a tackle for loss, a sack or quarterback hit. He's clearly a good player, but he's not remotely close to being a difference maker, which has really made the rise of Simmons critically important.
... Who has been better over four games ... Michael Taaffe or Andrew Mukuba? The answer is probably Mukuba, but it's much closer than most might suspect.
... I think David Gbenda might have a future in the NFL when it's all said and done. Same with Juan Davis. Not sure I thought either was possible as recently as a month ago.
... Fact: Liona Lefau has more sacks (2) than Moore, Barryn Sorrell, Alfred Collins, Vernon Broughton Ethan Burke and Justice Finkley COMBINED. Lefau also leads the team in tackles for loss (4).
... The biggest loser with Manning playing on Saturday was probably Gunnar Helm. If you don't run vertical routes, you don't get much of the ball with Manning. Helm received one target all night.
... Attaboy, Michael Kern. Shut me up.
... Passing Game Targets for Texas wide receivers through 4 games:
1. Isaiah Bond (20)
2. Matthew Golden (16)
3T. Silas Bolden (11)
3T. Ryan Wingo (11)
5. Johntay Cook (8)
6. Deandre Moore (5)
No. 4 - If I had a vote that mattered ...
1. Texas
2. Georgia
3. Alabama
4. Ohio State
5. Tennessee
6. Miami
7. Ole Miss
8. Oregon
9. Utah
10. Penn State
Heisman Trophy
1. Travis Hunter (Colorado)
2. Cam Ward (Miami)
3. Quinn Ewers (Texas)
4. Jalen Milroe (Alabama)
5. Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss)
No. 5 – Hall of Honor thoughts ...
Ten former Texas athletes and two coaches were inducted into the Texas Athletics Hall of Honor over the weekend. A few thoughts on some of those who were inducted:
Reggie Freeman (basketball) - My favorite Texas basketball player of all time. I can still remember sitting courtside when he dropped 43 on Jerry Tarkanian's Fresno State team the Saturday after Texas beat Nebraska in the initial Big 12 Championship game. The thing that people forget about Freeman when talking about him is how he completely transformed his skill set while he was in Austin. My mind was blown when he went from a 28.6% shooter on the three-ball as a freshman to a 38.7% shooter as a sophomore. He might not have been the most efficient volume shooter of all time, but the man averaged 21.8 points, 7.6 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game as a senior and I'm not sure there's ever been anyone quite like him since he left in 1997.
Marquise Goodwin (football) - I was the only person in the recruiting industry that rated Goodwin as a state top 100 selection, but I should have trusted my gut with him ... he was an elite of elite athlete, who few thought would actually play college football. Goodwin taught me an important lesson ... don't ignore 5-star traits. They matter.
Colt McCoy (football) - If Ryan Perrilloux had signed with the Longhorns in 2005, would Colt McCoy have ended up at LSU? I'm not sure we'll ever truly know, but I know that Brad McCoy called me on National Signing Day in 2005 before his son signed his letter of intent to confirm that Perrilloux hadn't signed with Texas. Weirdly, Mack Brown called me out in the media later that day, telling everyone at a round table that I had called Mr. McCoy to try and talk him out of letting his son with Texas. I was so pissed at such a wild and baseless accusation that I told him in front of everyone that I was willing to discuss what happened that morning in specific detail, complete with me showing all incoming and outgoing calls from my phone that day. Mack kind of apologized and declined to further discuss the matter in front of the rest of the media on hand. As far as I can remember, it's the only time in three decades that anyone has ever called into question my character in such a way.
Alex Okafor (football) - Did you know that Greg Davis was Okafor's primary recruiter? Yes, Greg Davis was a better recruiter of elite defensive linemen than Bo Davis.
Omar Quintanilla (baseball) - What a freaking player. What a freaking hitter. When I think of that 2002 title team, he's one of the first names that comes to mind. He ranks among the Longhorns’ all-time career top 10 in doubles (third), extra base hits (seventh), total bases (10th) and assists (10th). If not for Spike Owen, he's probably the shortstop on the all-time Texas baseball team.
No. 6 - Former Horns Transfer Watch ...
Here are notable stat lines from former Longhorns across college football this weekend ...
QB - Hudson Card (Purdue): 7 of 17 for 56 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT (76.5 rating) in a 38-21 loss to Oregon State.
QB - Maalik Murphy (Duke): 14 of 21 for 216 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT (190.7 rating) in a 45-17 win over Middle Tennessee State.
RB - Ja'Quinden Jackson (Arkansas): 22 carries for 75 yards and 2 TDs in a 24-14 win over Auburn.
RB - Savion Red (Nevada): 10 carries for 117 yards and 2 TD in a 49-16 win over Eastern Washington.
WR - Isaiah Neyor (Nebraska): 4 receptions for 90 yards and 2 TDs in a 31-21 OT loss to Illinois.
DB - Jerrin Thompson (Auburn): Recorded a team-best 8 tackles, a sack and a pass break-up in a 24-14 loss to Arkansas.
No. 7 - Inspecting college football super blue chip quarterbacks ...
This section comes via request of @Anwar Richardson from last night's post-game show on Orangebloods Live.
We're taking a look at the success rate of 5-star and high 4-star quarterbacks from the last few years. We know that 5-star prospects get drafted at a ballpark rate of about 65% and that more than 30% of all 5-stars get drafted in the first round of the Draft.
So, how do these numbers match up with what's happening in real time? Let's find out.
2020 Five-Stars
Bryce Young (Alabama - No. 2 overall) - While he might be struggling as a former No. 1 overall player in the 2023 Draft, Young was a great college player who won the Heisman, among other awards.
D.J. Uiagalelei (Clemson - No. 3 overall) - Uiagalelei looked like a player that took a step forward last season at Oregon State, but he's been absolutely dreadful since transferring to Florida State and I'm not sure if there's going to be any salvaging of what's left in his college career.
Harrison Bailey (Tennessee - No. 30 overall) - A total bust that makes Uiagalelei look like a Heisman winner, Bailey is currently the primary back-up at Louisville in his final season of play.
2021 Five-Stars
Quinn Ewers (Ohio State - No. 1 overall) - Although he hasn't proven that he warranted the No. 1 overall ranking in his class, he is one of the top quarterbacks in the country and projects as a pretty sure-fire first-round draft pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Caleb Williams (Oklahoma - No. 6 overall) - A Heisman winner and the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Brock Vandagriff (Georgia - No. 8 overall) - After flaming out at Georgia, Vandagriff has yet to emerge as anything other than a JAG in his first full season as the starter at Kentucky. Maybe it's too early to draw final conclusions, but maybe not.
Ty Thompson (Oregon - No. 10 overall) - Thompson is currently the back-up quarterback for Tulane.
Sam Huard (Washington - No. 17 overall) - Has bounced around after signing with the Huskies and is currently the third-string quarterback at Utah.
2022 Five-Stars
Cade Klubnik (Clemson - No. 3 overall) - Has really started to come into his own as a second-year starter for the Tigers and currently ranks 12th in the nation in passing efficiency (181.8) and third in ESPN's QBR (93.3).
Walker Howard (LSU - No. 20 overall) - Currently the third-string back-up at Ole Miss. It's definitely starting to feel like he's going to be a Sam Huard-level bust.
2023 Five-Stars
Arch Manning (Texas - No. 1 overall) - Perhaps he's still an obvious back-up to Quinn Ewers, but Manning currently ranks as the No. 4 quarterback in the country in terms of passing efficiency (205.3)
Nico Iamaleava (Tennessee - No. 2 overall) - Ranks as the nation's No. 14 quarterback in terms of passing efficiency in his first season as a starter for as top-10 team.
Dante Moore (UCLA - No. 4 overall) - Currently the primary back-up behind Dillon Gabriel at Oregon after leaving UCLA.
Malachi Nelson (USC - No. 14 overall) - Currently the primary back-up at Boise State after departing USC following a single season.
Jackson Arnold (Oklahoma - No. 23 overall) - May or may not still be the starting quarterback for the Sooners, Arnold ranks last among starting quarterbacks in the SEC in passing efficiency (120.9)
My initial reaction when looking at the data is that there's a clear difference between being a 5-star prospect at the top of the 5-star rankings, as opposed to being a "regular" 5-star prospect.
Here's the list of players that ranked in the top 6 or higher in the overall national rankings: Bryce Young, D.J. Uiagalelei, Quinn Ewers, Caleb Williams, Cade Klubnik, Arch Manning, Nico Iamaleava and Dante Moore.
Of that group of eight, only Uiagalelei is an obvious outright bust. Two have already been drafted No. 1 overall in the NFL and I'd suggest that Ewers, Klubnik, Manning and Iamaleava all have very strong chances to eventually be first-round picks at a minimum.
On the contrary, here's a look at the 5-stars who ranked between No. 7-No. 30 overall: Harrison Bailey, Brock Vandagriff, Ty Thompson, Sam Huard, Walker Howard, Malachi Nelson and Jackson Arnold. I'm not really sure that any of us can be sure than a single player from this group is going to be a plus-starter at the high major college level, let alone ending up in eventual first-round discussions.
Basically, the players at the very top of the rankings are actually 6-star prospects and aren't the same as the others.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I would probably rank a half-dozen others ahead of him, but he's certainly in the mix. I mean ... technically, Anthony Hill is a breakout player on the defense. Same with Malik Muhammad. Same with Jaylon Guilbeau. Same with Colin Simmons. That being said, he's more of a breakout player than Trey Moore.
(Buy) It's going to look like a kill scene from the show Dexter.
(Buy) It's possible that Georgia could be out of the SEC race by the time it leaves Austin.
(Sell) I don't think it matters.
(Sell) I can see one or both of Campbell or Williams going pro if they continue to surge and I can't give Neto any benefit of the doubt as a starter.
(Sell) I don't know why Colt said that he hadn't been back since leaving when he was in Austin for his jersey retirement during Cleveland's bye week in 2010 and he appears to have been at a Texas home game in 2014 (based on a photo of him sitting with the Longhorn Network studio crew). Maybe he smokes a lot of pot and has short-term memory issues?
(Buy) It might be my confirmation bias speaking because I love his raw talent and I'm kind of wishing it into reality.
(Sell) Sark seems to have everything under control. I don't think he has been sweating this situation at all.
(Buy) Is biscuits a metaphor for sex or money or something?
(Sell) Don't overthink this. Texas is trying to win a championship right now in 2024. There is no conundrum.
(Sell) I'm cool as long as Jaydon Blue stays healthy.
(Sell) They might make an occasional playoff appearance as one of the top 5-6 teams in the SEC, but I don't see them ever being more than that.
(Buy) Don't go out of your way to be a stupid version of Curvin Richards. Sark and this staff aren't going to put up with anyone who is remotely a headache. He needs to get on his knees and beg for forgiveness for the sideline hijinks from last night.
(Sell) I'm going to sell at this point, but it's not out of the realm of possibilities. I think we might see them go into the Portal. There were rumors last year of Boise State star Ashton Jeanty transferring to Texas back in December. Texas could land a big, proven fish if it wants to.
(Buy) It's what I'm thinking.
(Sell) I think he's going to play, but it's probably 55-45.
(Sell) My concern levels haven't changed.
(Buy/Sell/Sell) I think Ohio State might have the edge at receiver and the end of the Colorado game won't be romanticized much if Travis Hunter doesn't win the Heisman. It was a great moment for a bad team.
(Sell) I have zero concern. I can't have less than zero.
(Buy) Yes.
(Buy/Buy/Buy/Sell) The Longhorns haven't played a complete team, but how many of those even exist? I think we know exactly where Texas stands as a team right now. Full stop.
p.s. - A&M's quarterback play doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same stank breath as OU's quarterback play.
No. 9 – Scattershooting all over the place …
... SEC Thoughts Scattershots: I'm not saying that Missouri is a fraud, but the Tigers sure looked like they were in an even fistfight at home against ... Vandy. Do with that what you will. I don't know if Arkansas is good, but the Hawgs are feisty. Mississippi State is awful. Bring on Alabama vs. Georgia. I can't wait to see where both teams stand.
... Oklahoma needed to ride with Jackson Arnold and hope. I'm not sure they are a bowl team if Michael Hawkins has to play the rest of the season. He's going to be a good player in time, but once teams make adjustments to his strengths, he's going to be exposed as a very limited young player.
... What do you want me to say about the Cowboys? I have about as many words about the game as I do my surprise that it unfolded the way that it did.
... I did not expect Sam Darnold running circles around CH Stroud on my Sunday Bingo card (drink!).
... Rest in peace, Mercury Morris.
... Anthony Joshua got knocked the hell out. Ok, Daniel Dubois, I see you.
... Yes, I will watch the WNBA playoffs. I just won't be watching on an NFL Sunday.
... I'm in a real two-week losing streak on Prize Picks.
... Is there any way to shower Shohei Ohtani with too much hyperbole? What would be too much?
... Premier League Scattershots: Man City might have won the battle by snagging a point at the death against 10-man Arsenal, but if they lose Rodri for any real length of time with a serious knee injury, we might eventually look back and say that the champs lost the war. Hey Gunnars, stop kicking the ball away. Winning games is so much better than losing them. Way to take care of business, Reds. Of course, United dropped points on Saturday after planning a parade for scoring 7 on Barnsley.
... Can't say that I saw this Barcelona resurgence coming the way that it has so far this season. In Lamine Yamal, everyone must trust.
No. 10 – The List: Tom Hanks
How have I never done a Hanks Best Movies list?
I did a "Best Performance" list a few years ago, but that wasn't the same as doing a Best Movies List ... so, here we are.
Let's do this.
Last 5 Out: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Splash, Catch Me If You Can, Bridge of Spies and Philadelphia
10. Castaway
Maybe his single best acting performance. It feels like I should have this in the top 5.
9. A League of Their Own
Almost every woman I know would kill me if I didn't have this in the top 10, including my wife.
8. The Money Pit
It's the single funniest movie that Hanks has ever made. It's a perfect comedy.
7. Apollo 13
Maybe the most underrated of his movies.
6. Forrest Gump
This is going to be No. 1 for some of you, huh?
5. Sleepless in Seattle
One of the great rom-coms of all time.
4. You've Got Mail
I don't care what any of you say ... it's probably my favorite rom-com of all time.
3. Toy Story
Should Toy Story be No.1? In 100 years, are the Toy Story movies going to be what Hanks is most remembered for? None other than Quentin Tarantino has called the first three movies a perfect movie trilogy.
2. Saving Private Ryan
Did I get this wrong? It's one of Steven Spielberg's best movies and one of the best war movies of all time. The end gets me every time.
1. Big
It's the quintessential Hanks performance in my mind after all of the decades of film that he's produced. I'm convinced that he's the only one that could have pulled the role off. Robert De Niro was originally going to play the Josh character. Can you imagine that movie?
And yet he had a 300+ passer rating...
It only took Sarkisian two games to figure out that wasn't true
Aaron Ross averaged 14.7 yards per return and Quan averaged 15.3. Ramonce averaged 29.4 yard per kickoff return.
He didn't want the smoke that day.
That one really hit me in my feels. My roommate and I watched it. I got so pissed at him because he refused to use protection.
That's great. I forgot about that. Reference went right by me. Damnit.
Man, I don't know about that. All of those movies are massively replayed over the decades.
It's an insignificant movie in 2024 by anyone under 30, whereas the other three have held their status much higher.
Going 16-0 would be a different kind of undefeated and one could argue more daunting.
A day one sub chimes in! Love to see you!
Forest Gump isn’t even top 5?? It won best picture! I guess movie rankings are like a box of chocolates also..
I knew it wouldn't be popular with many.
Don't bother with the book. Forrest Gump is one of the rare movies that was much, much better than the book.
I’d heard some things from a co worker of mine who was one of Mac McWhorters neighbors- about the part of Mack that wasn’t all warm and cuddly tooHe didn't want the smoke that day.
I wonder what anyone under 30 would think of the weird noises in, You’ve Got Mail?
Less than a month ago, I wasn't ready to say that the 2024 Longhorns would beat the 2023 Longhorns on a neutral field.
That's no longer the case.
Through four weeks of the season, I find myself thinking that we're watching the second-best Texas team my eyes have seen in four decades of watching Texas football.
1. 2005
2. 2024
3. 2008
4. 2004
5. 2009/2023
This 2024 team is more talented and better on defense than the 2008 team. I'm not sure that the 2024 team is more talented than the 2004 team, but it is averaging almost twice as many yards per play than its opponents, which is the kind of absurdity that this current team is producing through four games.
Honestly, as exciting as the Texas offense is on a drive-by-drive basis behind Steve Sarkisian's play-calling, it's the defense that has me thinking that we're looking at a possible historically memorable kind of team.
When I say that the Texas passing game, especially its cornerbacks, is giving up nothing in the passing game, I mean they aren't giving up anything. Zero. Teams aren't even trying to throw at Malik Muhammad, Jahdae Barron or Jaylon Guilbeau. All three are playing like future NFL players.
The Longhorns have legit difference makers in the front six of the defense in Anthony Hill and Colin Simmons, who are on pace to combine for 12 sacks and 26 tackles for loss over 12 games, and only seem to be heating up.
Meanwhile, the deeper we get into the season, the more it becomes obvious that the Longhorns are likely going to be double-digit favorites in every game the rest of the way outside of the Georgia game next month. Outside of Carson Beck, the best quarterback that the Longhorns will see the rest of the way is likely ... Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia?
The only quarterbacks left on the schedule that are currently in the top 60 in individual passing efficiency are Georgia's Carson Beck (No. 24) and Pavia (No. 41). A&M's Marcel Reed ranks No. 61. Arkansas' Taylen Green is 90th. Kentucky's Brock Vandagriff is 91st. Oklahoma's Jackson Arnold is 100th.
In order to beat the Texas team, you're going to need to put up some points and I just don't see offenses that are going to be able to go toe to toe for 60 minutes.
I'm more bullish right now on this Texas team than I have been about any Texas team since 2005.
Enjoy every minute of it, fellas.
These are the best of times.
No. 2 - Pop-quiz ...
Do you know who the No. 4 quarterback in the country is in passing efficiency?
Hint: His jersey was sold out at DKR on Saturday.
I don't bring any of this up as a suggestion that Manning should start over Quinn Ewers (he shouldn't), but I do bring it up to remind everyone of the type of talent we're talking about.
Take a look at the stats that have been compiled by both Ewers and Manning thus far this season ...
Ewers: 58 of 79 (73.4%) for 691 yards, 8.7 yards per attempt, 8 TD, 2 INT and a 175.2 rating
Manning: 29 of 47 (61.7%) for 576 yards, 12.3 yards per attempt, 7 TD, 2 INT and a 205.3 rating
There's a pretty obvious story about the two players that you can see in the data.
Ewers ranks ninth in the country in completion percentage (73.4%) and 34th in yards per attempt (8.75). His specialty is dealing dimes in the short and intermediate passing games. Check out his passing map via PFF for the season.
Manning ranks third in the country in yards per attempt (12.26) and 81st in completion percentage (61.7). His specialty is attacking down the field and if you ever wondered which stat is more important, all you need to know is that Manning ranks third in passing efficiency, despite completing passes at a percentage similar to Jackson Arnold.
Check out his passing map.
Ewers throws the ball down the field beyond 20 yards once every 11.3 throws and between 11-20 yards once every 5.6 throws.
Manning throws the ball down the field beyond 20 yards once every 4.7 throws and between 11-20 yards once every 5.8 throws.
Eventually, Manning will improve his completion percentage (Ewers has gone from 58.1% to 69.0% to 73.4% in the last three seasons), but if his downfield aggression remains at an elite level, you can get a true picture of what the Texas offense might transform into in the next two seasons once Ewers is gone and Manning takes over for good.
While Manning likely won't average more than 12 yards per completion, just know that Sark's Alabama 2020 and 2019 offenses averaged 11 yards per completion in both seasons, which is more than two yards per completion more than Ewers' passing numbers this season and nearly three yards more per completion over his career.
It's two vastly different ways of playing the quarterback position. It might very well be that taking Manning's natural aggression and turning it down just a notch or two might have the future passing game reaching optimal levels.
No. 3 - Scattershooting the day after 52-3 ...
... Colin Page ranks third on the team in rushing (92 yards) and has the highest yards per carry (5.8) of any running back on the team.
... Colin Simmons finished Saturday night with almost as many game snaps as Trey Moore (24 to 20).
... We're 1/3 of the way into the season and Trey Moore still doesn't have a tackle for loss, a sack or quarterback hit. He's clearly a good player, but he's not remotely close to being a difference maker, which has really made the rise of Simmons critically important.
... Who has been better over four games ... Michael Taaffe or Andrew Mukuba? The answer is probably Mukuba, but it's much closer than most might suspect.
... I think David Gbenda might have a future in the NFL when it's all said and done. Same with Juan Davis. Not sure I thought either was possible as recently as a month ago.
... Fact: Liona Lefau has more sacks (2) than Moore, Barryn Sorrell, Alfred Collins, Vernon Broughton Ethan Burke and Justice Finkley COMBINED. Lefau also leads the team in tackles for loss (4).
... The biggest loser with Manning playing on Saturday was probably Gunnar Helm. If you don't run vertical routes, you don't get much of the ball with Manning. Helm received one target all night.
... Attaboy, Michael Kern. Shut me up.
... Passing Game Targets for Texas wide receivers through 4 games:
1. Isaiah Bond (20)
2. Matthew Golden (16)
3T. Silas Bolden (11)
3T. Ryan Wingo (11)
5. Johntay Cook (8)
6. Deandre Moore (5)
No. 4 - If I had a vote that mattered ...
1. Texas
2. Georgia
3. Alabama
4. Ohio State
5. Tennessee
6. Miami
7. Ole Miss
8. Oregon
9. Utah
10. Penn State
Heisman Trophy
1. Travis Hunter (Colorado)
2. Cam Ward (Miami)
3. Quinn Ewers (Texas)
4. Jalen Milroe (Alabama)
5. Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss)
No. 5 – Hall of Honor thoughts ...
Ten former Texas athletes and two coaches were inducted into the Texas Athletics Hall of Honor over the weekend. A few thoughts on some of those who were inducted:
Reggie Freeman (basketball) - My favorite Texas basketball player of all time. I can still remember sitting courtside when he dropped 43 on Jerry Tarkanian's Fresno State team the Saturday after Texas beat Nebraska in the initial Big 12 Championship game. The thing that people forget about Freeman when talking about him is how he completely transformed his skill set while he was in Austin. My mind was blown when he went from a 28.6% shooter on the three-ball as a freshman to a 38.7% shooter as a sophomore. He might not have been the most efficient volume shooter of all time, but the man averaged 21.8 points, 7.6 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game as a senior and I'm not sure there's ever been anyone quite like him since he left in 1997.
Marquise Goodwin (football) - I was the only person in the recruiting industry that rated Goodwin as a state top 100 selection, but I should have trusted my gut with him ... he was an elite of elite athlete, who few thought would actually play college football. Goodwin taught me an important lesson ... don't ignore 5-star traits. They matter.
Colt McCoy (football) - If Ryan Perrilloux had signed with the Longhorns in 2005, would Colt McCoy have ended up at LSU? I'm not sure we'll ever truly know, but I know that Brad McCoy called me on National Signing Day in 2005 before his son signed his letter of intent to confirm that Perrilloux hadn't signed with Texas. Weirdly, Mack Brown called me out in the media later that day, telling everyone at a round table that I had called Mr. McCoy to try and talk him out of letting his son with Texas. I was so pissed at such a wild and baseless accusation that I told him in front of everyone that I was willing to discuss what happened that morning in specific detail, complete with me showing all incoming and outgoing calls from my phone that day. Mack kind of apologized and declined to further discuss the matter in front of the rest of the media on hand. As far as I can remember, it's the only time in three decades that anyone has ever called into question my character in such a way.
Alex Okafor (football) - Did you know that Greg Davis was Okafor's primary recruiter? Yes, Greg Davis was a better recruiter of elite defensive linemen than Bo Davis.
Omar Quintanilla (baseball) - What a freaking player. What a freaking hitter. When I think of that 2002 title team, he's one of the first names that comes to mind. He ranks among the Longhorns’ all-time career top 10 in doubles (third), extra base hits (seventh), total bases (10th) and assists (10th). If not for Spike Owen, he's probably the shortstop on the all-time Texas baseball team.
No. 6 - Former Horns Transfer Watch ...
Here are notable stat lines from former Longhorns across college football this weekend ...
QB - Hudson Card (Purdue): 7 of 17 for 56 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT (76.5 rating) in a 38-21 loss to Oregon State.
QB - Maalik Murphy (Duke): 14 of 21 for 216 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT (190.7 rating) in a 45-17 win over Middle Tennessee State.
RB - Ja'Quinden Jackson (Arkansas): 22 carries for 75 yards and 2 TDs in a 24-14 win over Auburn.
RB - Savion Red (Nevada): 10 carries for 117 yards and 2 TD in a 49-16 win over Eastern Washington.
WR - Isaiah Neyor (Nebraska): 4 receptions for 90 yards and 2 TDs in a 31-21 OT loss to Illinois.
DB - Jerrin Thompson (Auburn): Recorded a team-best 8 tackles, a sack and a pass break-up in a 24-14 loss to Arkansas.
No. 7 - Inspecting college football super blue chip quarterbacks ...
This section comes via request of @Anwar Richardson from last night's post-game show on Orangebloods Live.
We're taking a look at the success rate of 5-star and high 4-star quarterbacks from the last few years. We know that 5-star prospects get drafted at a ballpark rate of about 65% and that more than 30% of all 5-stars get drafted in the first round of the Draft.
So, how do these numbers match up with what's happening in real time? Let's find out.
2020 Five-Stars
Bryce Young (Alabama - No. 2 overall) - While he might be struggling as a former No. 1 overall player in the 2023 Draft, Young was a great college player who won the Heisman, among other awards.
D.J. Uiagalelei (Clemson - No. 3 overall) - Uiagalelei looked like a player that took a step forward last season at Oregon State, but he's been absolutely dreadful since transferring to Florida State and I'm not sure if there's going to be any salvaging of what's left in his college career.
Harrison Bailey (Tennessee - No. 30 overall) - A total bust that makes Uiagalelei look like a Heisman winner, Bailey is currently the primary back-up at Louisville in his final season of play.
2021 Five-Stars
Quinn Ewers (Ohio State - No. 1 overall) - Although he hasn't proven that he warranted the No. 1 overall ranking in his class, he is one of the top quarterbacks in the country and projects as a pretty sure-fire first-round draft pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Caleb Williams (Oklahoma - No. 6 overall) - A Heisman winner and the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Brock Vandagriff (Georgia - No. 8 overall) - After flaming out at Georgia, Vandagriff has yet to emerge as anything other than a JAG in his first full season as the starter at Kentucky. Maybe it's too early to draw final conclusions, but maybe not.
Ty Thompson (Oregon - No. 10 overall) - Thompson is currently the back-up quarterback for Tulane.
Sam Huard (Washington - No. 17 overall) - Has bounced around after signing with the Huskies and is currently the third-string quarterback at Utah.
2022 Five-Stars
Cade Klubnik (Clemson - No. 3 overall) - Has really started to come into his own as a second-year starter for the Tigers and currently ranks 12th in the nation in passing efficiency (181.8) and third in ESPN's QBR (93.3).
Walker Howard (LSU - No. 20 overall) - Currently the third-string back-up at Ole Miss. It's definitely starting to feel like he's going to be a Sam Huard-level bust.
2023 Five-Stars
Arch Manning (Texas - No. 1 overall) - Perhaps he's still an obvious back-up to Quinn Ewers, but Manning currently ranks as the No. 4 quarterback in the country in terms of passing efficiency (205.3)
Nico Iamaleava (Tennessee - No. 2 overall) - Ranks as the nation's No. 14 quarterback in terms of passing efficiency in his first season as a starter for as top-10 team.
Dante Moore (UCLA - No. 4 overall) - Currently the primary back-up behind Dillon Gabriel at Oregon after leaving UCLA.
Malachi Nelson (USC - No. 14 overall) - Currently the primary back-up at Boise State after departing USC following a single season.
Jackson Arnold (Oklahoma - No. 23 overall) - May or may not still be the starting quarterback for the Sooners, Arnold ranks last among starting quarterbacks in the SEC in passing efficiency (120.9)
My initial reaction when looking at the data is that there's a clear difference between being a 5-star prospect at the top of the 5-star rankings, as opposed to being a "regular" 5-star prospect.
Here's the list of players that ranked in the top 6 or higher in the overall national rankings: Bryce Young, D.J. Uiagalelei, Quinn Ewers, Caleb Williams, Cade Klubnik, Arch Manning, Nico Iamaleava and Dante Moore.
Of that group of eight, only Uiagalelei is an obvious outright bust. Two have already been drafted No. 1 overall in the NFL and I'd suggest that Ewers, Klubnik, Manning and Iamaleava all have very strong chances to eventually be first-round picks at a minimum.
On the contrary, here's a look at the 5-stars who ranked between No. 7-No. 30 overall: Harrison Bailey, Brock Vandagriff, Ty Thompson, Sam Huard, Walker Howard, Malachi Nelson and Jackson Arnold. I'm not really sure that any of us can be sure than a single player from this group is going to be a plus-starter at the high major college level, let alone ending up in eventual first-round discussions.
Basically, the players at the very top of the rankings are actually 6-star prospects and aren't the same as the others.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I would probably rank a half-dozen others ahead of him, but he's certainly in the mix. I mean ... technically, Anthony Hill is a breakout player on the defense. Same with Malik Muhammad. Same with Jaylon Guilbeau. Same with Colin Simmons. That being said, he's more of a breakout player than Trey Moore.
(Buy) It's going to look like a kill scene from the show Dexter.
(Buy) It's possible that Georgia could be out of the SEC race by the time it leaves Austin.
(Sell) I don't think it matters.
(Sell) I can see one or both of Campbell or Williams going pro if they continue to surge and I can't give Neto any benefit of the doubt as a starter.
(Sell) I don't know why Colt said that he hadn't been back since leaving when he was in Austin for his jersey retirement during Cleveland's bye week in 2010 and he appears to have been at a Texas home game in 2014 (based on a photo of him sitting with the Longhorn Network studio crew). Maybe he smokes a lot of pot and has short-term memory issues?
(Buy) It might be my confirmation bias speaking because I love his raw talent and I'm kind of wishing it into reality.
(Sell) Sark seems to have everything under control. I don't think he has been sweating this situation at all.
(Buy) Is biscuits a metaphor for sex or money or something?
(Sell) Don't overthink this. Texas is trying to win a championship right now in 2024. There is no conundrum.
(Sell) I'm cool as long as Jaydon Blue stays healthy.
(Sell) They might make an occasional playoff appearance as one of the top 5-6 teams in the SEC, but I don't see them ever being more than that.
(Buy) Don't go out of your way to be a stupid version of Curvin Richards. Sark and this staff aren't going to put up with anyone who is remotely a headache. He needs to get on his knees and beg for forgiveness for the sideline hijinks from last night.
(Sell) I'm going to sell at this point, but it's not out of the realm of possibilities. I think we might see them go into the Portal. There were rumors last year of Boise State star Ashton Jeanty transferring to Texas back in December. Texas could land a big, proven fish if it wants to.
(Buy) It's what I'm thinking.
(Sell) I think he's going to play, but it's probably 55-45.
(Sell) My concern levels haven't changed.
(Buy/Sell/Sell) I think Ohio State might have the edge at receiver and the end of the Colorado game won't be romanticized much if Travis Hunter doesn't win the Heisman. It was a great moment for a bad team.
(Sell) I have zero concern. I can't have less than zero.
(Buy) Yes.
(Buy/Buy/Buy/Sell) The Longhorns haven't played a complete team, but how many of those even exist? I think we know exactly where Texas stands as a team right now. Full stop.
p.s. - A&M's quarterback play doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same stank breath as OU's quarterback play.
No. 9 – Scattershooting all over the place …
... SEC Thoughts Scattershots: I'm not saying that Missouri is a fraud, but the Tigers sure looked like they were in an even fistfight at home against ... Vandy. Do with that what you will. I don't know if Arkansas is good, but the Hawgs are feisty. Mississippi State is awful. Bring on Alabama vs. Georgia. I can't wait to see where both teams stand.
... Oklahoma needed to ride with Jackson Arnold and hope. I'm not sure they are a bowl team if Michael Hawkins has to play the rest of the season. He's going to be a good player in time, but once teams make adjustments to his strengths, he's going to be exposed as a very limited young player.
... What do you want me to say about the Cowboys? I have about as many words about the game as I do my surprise that it unfolded the way that it did.
... I did not expect Sam Darnold running circles around CH Stroud on my Sunday Bingo card (drink!).
... Rest in peace, Mercury Morris.
... Anthony Joshua got knocked the hell out. Ok, Daniel Dubois, I see you.
... Yes, I will watch the WNBA playoffs. I just won't be watching on an NFL Sunday.
... I'm in a real two-week losing streak on Prize Picks.
... Is there any way to shower Shohei Ohtani with too much hyperbole? What would be too much?
... Premier League Scattershots: Man City might have won the battle by snagging a point at the death against 10-man Arsenal, but if they lose Rodri for any real length of time with a serious knee injury, we might eventually look back and say that the champs lost the war. Hey Gunnars, stop kicking the ball away. Winning games is so much better than losing them. Way to take care of business, Reds. Of course, United dropped points on Saturday after planning a parade for scoring 7 on Barnsley.
... Can't say that I saw this Barcelona resurgence coming the way that it has so far this season. In Lamine Yamal, everyone must trust.
No. 10 – The List: Tom Hanks
How have I never done a Hanks Best Movies list?
I did a "Best Performance" list a few years ago, but that wasn't the same as doing a Best Movies List ... so, here we are.
Let's do this.
Last 5 Out: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Splash, Catch Me If You Can, Bridge of Spies and Philadelphia
10. Castaway
Maybe his single best acting performance. It feels like I should have this in the top 5.
9. A League of Their Own
Almost every woman I know would kill me if I didn't have this in the top 10, including my wife.
8. The Money Pit
It's the single funniest movie that Hanks has ever made. It's a perfect comedy.
7. Apollo 13
Maybe the most underrated of his movies.
6. Forrest Gump
This is going to be No. 1 for some of you, huh?
5. Sleepless in Seattle
One of the great rom-coms of all time.
4. You've Got Mail
I don't care what any of you say ... it's probably my favorite rom-com of all time.
3. Toy Story
Should Toy Story be No.1? In 100 years, are the Toy Story movies going to be what Hanks is most remembered for? None other than Quentin Tarantino has called the first three movies a perfect movie trilogy.
2. Saving Private Ryan
Did I get this wrong? It's one of Steven Spielberg's best movies and one of the best war movies of all time. The end gets me every time.
1. Big
It's the quintessential Hanks performance in my mind after all of the decades of film that he's produced. I'm convinced that he's the only one that could have pulled the role off. Robert De Niro was originally going to play the Josh character. Can you imagine that movie?
You overthought that list. The category was “best Tom Hanks movies” and Forest Gump was the best movie on that list. Saving Private Ryan would be ranked right there by many (not by others), but the majority of those flicks aren’t at the same level.
For example, I agree that Big is the quintessential Tom Hanks movie, but it isn’t a better movie than Forest Gump.
Honestly, for such a great volume of movies to work with that’s a pretty terrible top 10.
Great write up Ketch. You can tell this season is going to special.
Still surreal to read the name Manning in these reports. Can't believe how fortunate we are that we have that name associated with Texas
Still surreal to read the name Manning in these reports. Can't believe how fortunate we are that we have that name associated with Texas
