Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Rankings the 2024 Longhorns... are the transfers too high?)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
Heartfelt and excellent tribute to Mongo. Well done.
A year ago this weekend, I released my pre-season list of the top 25 Longhorns going into spring football.
Kelvin Banks topped the list, joined by Xavier Worthy, Jaylan Ford, JT Sanders and Adonai Mitchell in the top five.
Eventual All-Americans T'Vondre Sweat (9th) and Byron Murphy (17th) were nowhere near the top 5, which probably speaks to a lot of things (including my potential brain power), but more than anything it reveals just how much can change over the course of 10 months. What something looks like in February can look quite different by the time the following season concludes.
(Note: Before anyone beats me with a stupid stick, not a single person in 8 pages of comments disputed the rankings of Sweat and Murphy... who knew?)
What is most remembered about those rankings was probably my ranking of Quinn Ewers, which coming off of a tame first season as a starter was fairly low (No. 20), much to the chagrin of many.
Here's what I wrote at the time: "From a talent standpoint, he should be higher. From a production standpoint, he should probably be ranked lower. Instead, he sits at No. 20 with all of us knowing that he has the ability to be much, much higher and also the capacity to fall off of the list completely. I've got a hunch that he finishes in the top 10 in 11 months from now."
In retrospect, none of that seems too crazy. Or maybe I am crazy and because I'm crazy, I can't know any better.
Regardless of my mental health, I'm back for more. Keep in mind these aren't projections for the 2024 season. Instead, it's a real-time inspection of the here and now ... before the off-season forms the monsters of the fall.
Where does Ewers land in this year's rankings? Higher than last year, that's for certain.
Let's get on with it.
Honorable Mention: Linebacker David Gbenda, offensive tackle Cam Williams, offensive guard Hayden Conner, defensive tackle Vernon Broughton, kicker Bert Auburn, Nickel Jaylon Guilbeau, wide receiver DeAndre Moore, offensive tackle Brandon Baker, wide receiver Ryan Wingo and safety Xavier Filsaime
25. DB -Michael Taaffe (Last year: NR)
Ranked ahead of David Gbenda, Terrance Brooks, Derek Williams, Malik Muhammad and Alfred Collins in @Alex Dunlap's Defensive Productivity Market-Share Percentages and Snaps per Production Caused Metrics rankings.
24. QB - Arch Manning (Last year: 25)
There's no way a No. 1 overall recruit from the Class of 2023 can't be on a Top 25 list. I won't hear otherwise!
23. TE - Amari Niblack (Last year: N/A)
Was a part-time starter for the Tide in 2023, catching 20 passes for 327 yards and 4 touchdowns.
22. WR - Johntay Cook (Last year: NR)
If we were ranking players based on sheer raw ability, Cook easily jumps into the top 10. It's just a matter of him developing into the kind of player that warrants that lofty of a spot on the list.
21. CB Terrance Brooks (Last year: 15)
Earned honorable mention All-Big 12 honors in 2023 after starting 13 games and recording a career-high 3 interceptions. There's a sense that the coaches want more from him in 2024, but he's probably underrated at this point because everyone knows that they've been recruiting starting-level corners to possibly replace him.
20. DB - Derek Williams (Last year: NR)
Recorded 42 tackles and 2 pass break-ups as a true freshman last season, but is expected to take on a much larger role in 2024 next to newcomer Andrew Mukuba.
19. TE - Gunnar Helm (Last year: NR)
Earned honorable mention All-Big 12 honors at tight end last season, despite making only 6 starts and catching only 14 passes.
18. RB - C.J. Baxter (Last year: NR)
Earned honorable mention All-Big 12 honors in 2023 as a true freshman after making 6 starts, but averaged only 4.8 yards per carry, which is why he's not ranked a little higher.
17. CB - Maalik Muhammad (Last year: NR)
Little bit of a projection here for a player that made only two starts as a freshman in 2023, but by the end of the season it felt like he was the best cornerback on the team.
16. DT - Alfred Collins (Last year: NR)
An honorable mention All-Big 12 selection in 2023, who made 6 starts and received a Senior Bowl invite before deciding to return to Texas for one more season. Made 22 tackles, 2 sacks and 2 pass break-ups last season.
15. Edge - Colin Simmons (Last year: N/A)
This is where I'm slotting in the jewel of the 2024 recruiting class. Too high? Too low? Just right?
14. OL - Jake Majors (Last year: NR)
Majors earned honorable mention All-Big 12 honors as a junior and ranked just behind D.J. Campbell in terms of average/media game grade and snaps per disruption.
13. DE - Barryn Sorrell (Last year: 8)
Sorrell has earned honorable mention All-Big 12 honors in two consecutive seasons. Recorded 37 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and 4 sacks in 2023.
12. OL - D.J. Campbell (Last year: NR)
Emerged as the team's second best lineman last year in snaps per disruption and was the third-ranked starter along the offensive line in terms of average/median game rankings.
11. RB - Jaydon Blue (Last year: NR)
Perhaps this is a smidge too high for Blue when you look at his productivity from last season, but he averaged 6.1 yards per carry in 2023 and emerged as the most dynamic running back on the team by the end of the season.
10. Edge - Ethan Burke (Last year: NR)
Earned honorable mention All-Big 12 honors as a sophomore after leading the team with 5.5 sacks, while also recording 9 tackles for loss. Burke was one of the best players on the field when the Longhorns beat Alabama in September.
9. WR - Matthew Golden (Last year: N/A)
One of the nation's top return guys on special teams in 2023, who ranked eighth in the Big 12 in touchdown receptions (6). Ranked second on the Houston team in all-purpose yards (725).
8. S - Andrew Mukuba (Last year: N/A)
A three-year starter for Clemson (31 starts), who earned Freshman All-America honors in 2021 and has recorded 143 tackles and 17 pass break-ups in his career.
7. Nickel - Jahdae Barron (Last year: 6)
A second-team All-Big 12 selection in 2023, who recorded 61 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and a career-high 6 pass break-ups.
6. WR - Silas Bolden (Last year: N/A)
An All-Pac 12 return man on special teams, who emerged as Oregon State's leader in receptions (54) and receiving yards (746) as a junior in 2023. Showed up time and time again when the Beavers played the ranked teams on their schedule.
5. Edge - Trey Moore (Last year: N/A)
Led the nation in sacks and tackles for loss last year, while earning AAC Defensive Player of the Year honors.
4. WR - Isaiah Bond (Last year: N/A)
Expected to step into the role of WR1 for the Longhorns after leading Alabama with 48 receptions for 668 yards and four touchdowns in 2023. Earned Offensive Player of the Week honors from the Alabama staff in one-third of Alabama's regular season games.
3. LB - Anthony Hill (Last year: 24)
The former 5-star prospect was Co-Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year in 2023 and returns as the highest-ranking player from last season's Defensive Market Share rankings. Moving forward, the expectation for Hill will be that he's the defense's best player in 2024.
2. QB - Quinn Ewers (Last year: 20)
Made the jump up from below average as a redshirt freshman to very good as a sophomore (2nd-team All-Big 12 by the AP) and now the expectation is that he'll be among the best quarterbacks in the entire country, although that's still a step that we're all waiting for him to take.
1. LT - Kelvin Banks (Last year: 1)
A day-one starter from the very moment he first stepped on campus, Banks was No.1 on this list a year ago and did nothing to drop from the top spot after a sophomore season that saw him earn 1st-team All-Big 12 (coaches)/2nd-team All-America (AFCA) honors.
No. 2 - A few thoughts on the new deals for Sark and his coordinators ...
* Considering the going rate for mid-level SEC head coaches is 9 million (see Kentucky's Mark Stoops and Tennessee's Josh Heupel), Sarkisian's new deal that starts at 10.3 million per year (plus bonuses and perks) feels about right. Honestly, it might actually look like a sweetheart deal for the Longhorns in a couple of seasons if the going rate for coaches continues to climb like it has over the last half-decade.
* Sark is now the third-highest-paid coach in college football, trailing only Kirby Smart (10.7+ million per year) and Dabo Swinney (11.5 million per year).
* Adding four years to his deal instead of three is probably the biggest tax the Longhorns had to pay in an off-season that sees Sarkisian as the only head coach among last year's four playoff teams to still have the same job. There's no way that Jimmy Sexton was going to settle for Sark getting less than anyone else on the market.
* Given the state of their head coaching options in the last few years, there's a very good chance that all three of Sark's coordinators will do all 6 of his first 6 years with him on the Texas staff. That's pretty incredible staff continuity a the top in today's age of college football. It's kind of ironic after all of the early fuss that Pete Kwiatkowski has turned into a potential Texas staff lifer.
* Looking at the salaries of all three of his coordinators, it's easy to see why the Longhorns had zero interest in paying Bo Davis the money that LSU put on a plate for him. Matching $1.5 million (a quarter-million more than Jeff Banks) would have impacted the pay for all three.
No. 3 - When the dead period ends on March 4th ...
After hosting only a single recruiting event in the month of January, one of the goals for this Texas staff in the month of March and April has to be getting as many of the top prospects in the state on campus as possible before the start of the official visit season begins in earnest.
Here's a look at the top 20 uncommitted prospects in the state of Texas (per Rivals rankings), along with the number of visits each prospect has made to Austin and the date of their last visit to the 40 Acres.
Last visit: 7/27/23
Total number of visits to Texas: (3) 7/27/23, 3/25/23 and 1/21/23
Last visit: 10/7/23
Total number of visits to Texas: (4) 10/7/23, 9/16/23, 6/2/23 and 5/12/23
Last visit: 10/28/23,
Total number of visits to Texas: (8) 10/28/23, 9/16/23, 6/4/23, 3/25/23, 1/21/23, 9/10/22, 6/11/22 and 1/22/22
Last visit: 1/20/23
Total number of visits to Texas: (1) 1/20/23
Last visit: 3/23/23
Total number of visits to Texas: (1) 3/23/23
Last visit: 1/19/23
Total number of visits to Texas: (4) 1/19/23, 10/1/22, 6/9/22 and 1/22/22
Last visit: 6/3/23
Total number of visits to Texas: (1) 6/3/23
Last visit: N/A
Total number of visits to Texas: N/A
Last visit: 1/20/24
Total number of visits to Texas: (1) 1/20/24
Last visit: N/A
Total number of visits to Texas: N/A
Last visit: 1/20/24
Total number of visits to Texas: (3) 1/20/24, 9/30/23 and 3/10/23
Last visit: 10/7/23
Total number of visits to Texas: (3) 10/7/23, 6/3/23 and 4/15/23
Last visit: 1/20/24
Total number of visits to Texas: (3) 1/20/24, 7/27/23 and 1/21/23
Last visit: 1/20/24
Total number of visits to Texas: (2) 1/20/24 and 9/16/23
Last visit: 1/20/24
Total number of visits to Texas: (2) 1/20/25 and 6/3/23
Last visit: 1/20/24
Total number of visits to Texas: (6) 1/20/24, 6/3/23, 4/15/23, 4/1/23, 11/22/22 and 6/11/22
Last visit: N/A
Total number of visits to Texas: N/A
Last visit: 9/16/23
Total number of visits to Texas: (4) 9/16/23, 6/3/23, 1/21/23 and 10/01/22
Last visit: 1/20/24
Total number of visits to Texas: (2) 1/20/24 and 6/2/23
No. 4 - Updated Scholarship Board ...
Just in case anyone needed a refresher...
No. 5 - Mongo Fighting For His Life ...
One week after being named to the NFL Hall of Fame, all-time Texas great Steve McMichael is fighting for his life after undergoing a blood transfusion because of an infection.
Per the Associated Press: "McMichael, 66, was hospitalized Thursday with what was initially thought to be pneumonia. He was diagnosed with a urinary tract infection. The family said Friday he was responding to antibiotics and was having fluid removed from his lungs, and he was expected to be released in the coming days."
Now he's contracted a staff infection (MRSA), which can be problematic because of its resistance to some antibiotics. All of this while he's been fighting ALS for the last 3+ years.
It's almost too much to even compute. McMichael's goal is to make it to August, so that he can be on hand for his induction into the Hall of Fame, but it's hard not to want the man to find peace. Yet, maybe finding peace is making it to August. When a man is fighting this hard to live, peace can wait, I suppose.
Keep fighting the good, hard fight, Mongo. We're all with you.
No. 6 - Speaking of Holding The Rope ...
I know the Texas basketball team took one on the chin on Saturday at Houston. It was a flat-out ass-kicking.
One of the cardinal sins at Texas is getting it handed to you by Houston. It's simply not allowed to happen in any sport and Rodney Terry is 0-3 against the Cougars this season.
Still, I'm going to remind everyone of two things:
a. This season will be remembered by what happens in March.
b. Terry's team will be playing in March.
Maybe just wait a few more weeks before drawing large conclusions about the basketball team because if it finds a way to make it to the second weekend of the Tournament, all that happened this weekend will be forgotten.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) Sure. It was probably the highlight of the weekend in the NBA, so I'm told by people not named Kenny Smith.
(Buy) Sure, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt in Norman and the Big 12 Tournament title game. They've got real guts.
(Sell) They fully thought Davis was coming back another year before LSU came back with a financial offer that the Longhorns simply had zero urge to match.
(Sell) It's his job at left guard until someone actually takes it from him and that hasn't remotely happened yet.
(Sell) A-N-D-R-E-W M-U-K-U-B-A
(Sell) No one actually believes that nothing went on in that situation. As I said the last time this question was asked, everything about that situation feels ugly and there's only so much ugly that Texas athletics should live with. BTW, whatever happened to the audio that would clear him? Screw that dude. You either have a code about these things or you don't. Texas does.
(Buy) The SEC Championship game?
(Sell) In a recent poll I did here on the site, 83+ percent believe that the bat next season is making the playoffs and winning at least one game.
(Sell) I'm not sure that it's quite that high for next season.
(Sell) It could happen, but I wouldn't think it's a statistical likelihood.
(Sell) Let's count them out... Quinn Ewers, Isaiah Bond, Gunnar Helm, Kelvin Banks, Hayden Conner, Jake Majors, Barryn Sorrell, Alfred Collins, Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba make 10. It's not an impossibility that David Gbenda or Kendrick Blackshire could sneak in, but I'm going to say no, which means that other early entrees like Jaydon Blue, Trey Moore and Terrance Brooks would have to get them over the hump. It's going to be close, but I'm selling... for now.
No. 8 – Scattershooting …
... I love the NBA, but I had zero interest in this weekend's All-Star game festivities on Friday or Saturday. Once upon a time, I loved the dunk contest and the three-point competition. I just couldn't care less.
... Mac McClung has almost as many dunk contest titles (2) as he has NBA games played (4).
... I had no idea that the Daytona 500 was scheduled for this weekend. It's been pushed to Monday for those of you who also didn't know.
... Ilia Topuria said throughout the week leading up to UFC 298 that he would knock out featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski in the second round and that's exactly what he did. Tip of the cap for that, my man.
... Leverkusen are 8 points up on Bayern Munich. It's happening.
No. 9 – Three weeks to go …
The Oscars are exactly three weeks from today and I've got some work to do if I'm going to see all of the major nominees before the big night.
Here's how my rankings look at this point.
Best Picture
1. Oppenheimer
2. Anatomy of a Fall
4. Maestro
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Barbie
6. Past Lives
7. The Holdovers
Still need to see: American Fiction, Poor Things and The Zone of Interest
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
2. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
3. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
4. Coleman Domingo (Rustin)
Still need to see: Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Best Actress
1. Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall)
2. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Still need to see: Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Annette Bening (Nyad)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
2. Robert DeNiro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Robert Downey Kr. (Oppenheimer)
Still need to see: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
3. America Ferrera (Barbie)
Still need to see: Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) and Jodie Fostr (Nyad)
Best Director
1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
2. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Justine Trier (Anatomy of a Fall)
Still need to see: Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) and Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
No. 10 - Top 10: Lionel Richie ...
Following in the lead of the Bob Dylan list from a week ago, I'm still on my "We Are The World" trip and it feels like the man who made the whole thing happen deserves his love since I think it's been a decade since I last featured him in this column.
Spotify says it was the weekend of March 23, 2013 and I have no reason to argue.
So, let's get on with it.
Honorable Mention: Sail On. Truly, Do It To Me, Say, You, Say Me, Dancing on the Ceiling, Penny Lover, What You Are, Lady (You Bring Me Up), Zoom, Stuck on You, Deep River Woman and Sweet Love
10. Sweet Love
Richie's first big hit ballad with the Commodores.
9. Endless Love
This isn't my favorite song, but this duo with Diana Ross has to make the list. It's Ross' biggest selling single... ever. The song spent 9 weeks in the No.1 spot on the Hot 100 list in 1981.
8. You Are
One of the first songs in the early 80s that brought me into Richie's orbit.
7. Running With The Night
A banger from the 1983 Grammy-winning album "Can't Slow Down".
6. Hello
I've always loved this song. I feel a little untrue to myself by not having it ranked a little higher.
5. Lady
Most notably known for being Kenny Rogers' greatest hit, the man who wrote it for him does. a great version in his own right.
4. Three Times a Lady
Close your eyes and imagine that Frank Sinatra is singing this song... because that's who Richie wrote the song for. Instead, it became one of his iconic hits with the Commodores.
3. All Night Long
All I can tell you is that when I was a kid, this song playing over and over again on MTV had Richie running neck and neck with Michael Jackson as the biggest music star in the world.
2. Easy
It's just such a great vibe. It might be the best Saturday morning song ever written.
1. We Are The World
I gave this a lot of thought this weekend and it has to be this, right? A Netflix doc was literally just made about it. There are more superstars on that song than any ever recorded and yet... it's his song.
Only nit pick at the Top 25 list is Cam Williams. He is replacing a multi year starter at a key position of a pretty solid OL. Him stepping in and stepping up will be key to the offenses success next year. I would put him in top 15.
Who he played for should be a positive. Oregon State was a very good power 5 outfit.
a. Silas is an outside receiver. So is Cook.
b. Vasek isn't a factor at this point.
c. They didn't bring Moore in to sit.
I don't think you can put him that high... yes. It's not a projection. It's a snapshot of where things are right now.
We will all see how they pan out won't we. And where were these other so-called DEs at by the way.
Then you go do his job....... That way a bunch of armchair experts can sit here and question your choices when you make them.
I think Niblack at #23 on the list will end up being too high. I think Sark will make sure the tight end has plenty of touches. Also, we need Collins to best the #16 ranking and move in the top 10. Sure a good thing when you have talent all over the field. Db's need to step up too but hopefully a better pass rush helps there too.
I think it would have to be either Gbenda, Blackshire, Blackwell.
Someone has to fill Jaylon Fords shoes, and start at linebacker next to Hill.
Not having a starting middle linebacker in the top 25 players seems incorrect.
I guess it could be a platoon or committee position with the 3 players rotating in different packages.
Have you heard anything about Blackshire behind the scenes? I had heard Alabama was disappointed that he left.
Maybe Lefau?
The fact that we don't have answers or anything close to answers makes me think I got it just right.
Remember... this isn't a projection, it's a look at where things stand right now.
I think it's Muhammed for me. I know it's a smaller sample size but the way he played by the end of the year was undeniable.
I get why for purposes of this exercise you'd take someone higher with more overall career production (Sorrell as an example) but I think Muhammed's shown enough - coupled with the talent - to be higher.
One of many typos in the article. Worst editor in the history of editors.My editor didn't see that!!!!
Damn, put your knives away gentlemen.
First, there were other DEs available. A quick google search could produce a list. Are these guys any better than Moore? 🤷♂️, but that is Sark’s job to evaluate and take the best guy.
https://247sports.com/season/2024-football/transferportaltop/?positionkey=60
Second, I hope Trey Moore isn’t a bust, my only concern is his size.
@Ketchum all you need now is a Richard Marx top 10.
By the way, thanks for keeping the truth alive about Beard.
By the way, thanks for keeping the truth alive about Beard.
a. I think you are wrong, Bond and Golden are much more likely outside receivers at this point, but I guess all the parts can move around. Silas and Cook in the slot makes a lot of sense. Heck, you were the one arguing last year off season how great Cook was and that he was going to play a ton (which I countered that he wouldn't, and I was correct), 5 star's don't sit 2 seasons in a row. Bond and Golden also didn't come to sit. Time share situations make it tough to crack a top 10 is all. I think he is a great player still.
b. I think those in the program are very high on Vasek, he was borderline blue chip afterall. He is now healthy and will compete. Either way, Moore will be sharing reps with multiple guys, similar to Silas.
c. Moore isn't going to be handed anything, he still has to earn it.
1. Bond played the majority of his snaps inside at Alabama. Golden played a lot inside for UH. Bolden was outside almost exclusively.
I still believe Cook is going to be a monster.
2. I ranked Vasek as a super blue chip. He's still developing physically.
3. The expectation from those in the program, all the way up to the very top, is that he will.
I agree Alfred Collins is going to do the Sweat move this season and be the force we knew he could be.
Also, Austin Jordan continues to be the invisible man, when it seemed many games he was logging a ton of snaps and generating production, according to @Alex Dunlap . I think he is going to be noticed this year
Also, Austin Jordan continues to be the invisible man, when it seemed many games he was logging a ton of snaps and generating production, according to @Alex Dunlap . I think he is going to be noticed this year
I hear you, but to a certain extent all of the portal guys are projections because they don't have time in the system.
