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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (The worm sure does turn fast these days...)

Regarding recruiting rankings, the Dallas Morning News periodically posts their Area/State/National top 100 list of prospects.They did this yesterday and I noticed they were 247 lists and not Rivals. I could be wrong but in the past it has always been Rivals. They also had an article that included quotes from Jeff Howe, etc.
@Ketchum , just curious if you were aware of this ?
I haven't paid attention to who the DMN uses for its partnership in rankings is almost a decade.

I don't think it has been Rivals in a long time.
 
its not really what WE think but what the kids will BELIEVE. Ketch nailed it...Herman better buckle up cuz the ride is gonna be really, really rough. Herman is in a place worse than a door-to-door salesman with nothing to sell but a dream. As Ketch pointed out, Lincoln has proof and Jimbo has a legacy...Herman? A miserable record, bad play calling and personnel decisions. This ship just took on a whole lotta' water.
Then you better jump ship. If you really thought this was going to be turned around miraculously in one year you really have no clue how bad things were. Plus this Legacy coach just went to a school
That has no legacy for winning anything.
 
What is known about Calallen? How does Mac match up with this team? Anybody know? I know the Knights are a well coached team and a tough out for anyone in this magical season.
 
Six months ago, Bob Stoops stepped down from his post as Oklahoma head coach after 18 seasons and the landscape for Tom Herman suggested that the bull was in front of him, begging to be grabbed by the horns.

Less than two hours to the east was a floundering Kevin Sumlin, practically begging to be replaced. A little further southeast you had an LSU program that was suddenly being led by someone that operates on Red Bull.

Suddenly, the only real path of resistance for Herman in his quest for supremacy in this state was a program being led by a first-year head coach without any proven chops as a leader of a program.

Herman didn't even have to kick the door down, it was wide open for him ... seemingly.

Six months later, that unproven first-year coach has his team in the playoff with a quarterback destined for the Heisman, while that other team a little southeast across state lines is ranked in the top 15.

And that program less than two hours east of Austin? Yeah, it's not being led by a floundering JAG of a coach. Instead, it has a national championship-winning coach steering the ship.

What does it all mean?

It means that even before you factor in a disappointing 6-6 season with a boatload of questions heading into the off-season, the job that Herman has in front of him has become significantly more difficult. If it seemed as if Herman might be shooting from the layup line this summer, he's been pushed out to the three-point line by Christmas.

It doesn't mean that it's time to panic, not by a long shot. Yet, you're a damned fool if you don't think the hire of Fisher and the season that Oklahoma has had under Lincoln Riley hasn't changed the dynamics in this state in 2018, 2019 and beyond in recruiting. Perhaps Fisher falls on his face in College Station over the long haul, but in the short-term his hire will create some immediate recruiting shockwaves.

Texas hired Herman because decision-makers believed he was an elite coach in the making. Those decision-makers better be right because these parts will no longer be won by someone who is less than that.

The competition at every turn simply won't allow for it.

No. 2 – The elephant in the room ...
talk-about-the-white-elephant-in-the-room.png


The hire of Jimbo Fisher in College Station is an absolute game-changer and represents the single most dynamic hire that any school in this state has probably ever made.

I don't think A&M will ever win a title under Fisher, but make no mistake about the message the school sent by backing up the cash truck and locking him into a guaranteed $75 million - they are in it to win it.

This state hasn't been this competitive since Nick Saban, Mack Brown and Bob Stoops were all in their primes, circa 2003.

No. 3 – An old friend awaits Texas in Houston ...


There's good news and bad news with the announcement on Sunday that the Longhorns will face Missouri in the Texas Bowl.

Let's start with the good news ... this is a winnable game. The Longhorns have played much-better teams than Missouri this season and been on the brink of winning several of those games.

Texas should have a home-field advantage and playing the game in Houston can't be seen as anything but a positive in terms of recruiting in the state's most important hotbed of talent for the Texas program.

The bad news?

Missouri is red-hot. Like surface of the sun hot. It's on a six-game winning streak and has scored AT LEAST 45 points in each of those six wins. Hell, it scored 28 points on the road at Georgia in its last loss back in mid-October.

Junior quarterback Drew Locke has thrown for 42 touchdowns this season and has a season quarterback rating that is about 40 points higher than anything Texas can put on the field, which means that Todd Orlando and the Texas defense will have to bring their big-boy pants to the field because their counterparts can do some serious damage.

You can say that the only teams the Tigers have beaten are losing teams, and that's fair, but this is a team that has consistently played a good brand of football since mid-October.

Bottom line?

It's probably going to take 25+ points to win this game. Can Texas get to 25?

No. 4 – Things I think, I think ...

I. I'm not going to die on a hill for either of UT's quarterbacks going into this game, as neither has played well enough this season to justify someone having too strong of an opinion on the matter. While I think Sam Ehlinger's highs have been higher than Shane Buechele's this season, I totally understand someone being scared to death to have him on the field in the final moments of the game. Personally, I'd play Ehlinger for a number of reasons, but I'd rather have a third option than choose from the two in front of me.

II. In order to win this game, the Longhorns are going to need the type of performance we saw from the defensive unit against USC, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and West Virginia, yet the unit is probably going to have to be great without the likes of Malik Jefferson, DeShon Elliott and Holton Hill, its three best players on the team this season. It's going to require Gary Johnson, Kris Boyd and Brandon Jones to all play the best games they've played all season.

III. The offense desperately needs Collin Johnson to have a monster performance in this game. If not him, someone at the receiver position. Texas can't win without someone among this group playing like one of the best five players on the field.

IV. It goes without saying that this is a monster game for the program, even if it doesn't interest the Texas fan base in wide-spread fashion. The difference between 6-7 and 7-6 feels very, very large.

No. 5 – Buy or Sell …
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BUY or SELL: Any concerns regarding this staff don't include their recruiting abilities and efforts?

(Sell) They've been mostly aces in that department this season, especially in the Greater Houston Area, but it's foothold (or lack thereof) in the Metroplex is a concern, as is the offensive line recruiting. There are definitely areas of improvement that could and need to be made.

BUY or SELL: Drew Merringer will take over the offense play calling. Herman will take the reins for the offense. Tim Beck will be up in the press box doing nothing but updating his resume looking like he is being productive.

(Sell) I don't have any idea why anyone would think Mehringer is the answer to the offensive coaching issues or that Herman would want to test-drive this kind of change in a pretty critical game. I expect to see the coaches handle this game as they have all season.

BUY or SELL: Jerrod Heard is on depth chart at QB in the spring?

(Sell) The Texas staff simply does not view Heard as a quarterback.

BUY or SELL: Jimbo is no more a guarantee at A&M than Herman is at Texas?

(Sell) Jimbo Fisher is one of four active head coaches in college football with a national title on his resume and has won 10, 9, 12, 14, 13, 10, 10 and 5 games in the seasons he has been a head coach. Tom Herman has one season as a head coach out of three where he has finished with as many wins as Fisher's second-worst season. He might fall on his face in College Station, but his history suggests that he's as much as a guarantee as you can make in a hire that isn't named Saban, Meyer or Dabo.

BUY or SELL: Herman is just as shocked at this year's record/results as everyone else?

(Buy) He was very, very confident about this team coming into the season.

BUY or SELL: Greg Fenves counters A&M and finally makes a splash hire in Chris Del Conte?

(Buy) I think Del Conte is going to be the primary target, but I'm not sure that hire would qualify as a "splash". A splash for whom?

BUY or SELL: Herman actually signs a top-5 class this off-season?

(Sell) Man, it's going to be close, but as it relates to the Rivals rankings, I believe Texas will finish just outside the top five. Barely.

BUY or SELL: 2008 BCS Rankings after championship weekend final ranking. 1) Blow U 12-1, 2) FL 12-1, 3) Texas 11-1, 4) Bama 12-1, 5) USC 11-1, 6) Utah 12-0, 7) Sand Aggie 11-1, and 8) Penn St 11-1

Texas makes it into one of the four playoff spots had they done this format back then?


(Buy) It would have been Oklahoma vs. Alabama, along with Texas vs. Florida.Maybe a Texas vs. Oklahoma rematch for the title.

BUY or SELL: Baker is a better college QB than Colt?

(Buy) This conversation will be a moot point if Oklahoma wins a national title, but the reality is that when you look at the senior seasons for both players, Baker was light years better than Colt and over the course of his entire Oklahoma career, his quarterback rating is a full 35 points higher. Thirty-five.

I'll duck now.

No. 6 – If I had a vote that mattered ...

1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Alabama
5. USC
6. Ohio State
7. Auburn
8. Central Florida
9. Wisconsin
10. Penn State

No. 7 – Dis gonna be fun ...

I understand that many don't like seeing Alabama make it into the top four and some would rather go Christmas shopping at the mall than watch Oklahoma in the playoff ...

But ...

Blemishes and all, the two match-ups the college football season/committee have given us are pretty enticing.

Clemson vs. Alabama - part III?

Georgia vs. Oklahoma?

Yes, please. That's a double-header full of fun football right there for the average college football fan who just wants to see interesting games with interesting story-lines.

Give me Oklahoma and Alabama in the national title game, with the Tide winning the title. No team left in the field can do to Alabama what Auburn did.

No. 8 - It ain't football, but ...

* The Texas volleyball team is in the Sweet 16 and faces Utah on Friday night for the chance to meet Stanford for a trip to the Final Four.

* The women's basketball team is ranked No. 2 in the nation after smashing previously undefeated Georgia on Sunday and faces off with Tennessee on the road a week from today.

* Shaka Smart returns to VCU on Tuesday night, as the men's basketball team continues to climb towards a top-25 ranking.

See ... it ain't all bad!

No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

* USC vs Ohio State is a hell of a Cotton Bowl match-up. I think USC is the team outside of the playoff that no one inside of the playoff would want to play.

* Clemson beat Miami like it was the 1991 Cotton Bowl.

* J.K. Dobbins broke Maurice Clarett's freshman rushing record at Ohio State. Yup, that was a big recruiting loss.

* I might become the next Sugar Ray Leonard, but I am announcing my retirement from fantasy football.

* The season for the Texans can't end soon enough.

* Texas-Ex Adrian Phillips was a solid college player, but he's turned into a damned fine pro player.

* I don't know if I have ever been more wrong about an NFL team that I have been wrong about the Saints this season.

* Mike Zimmer is one hell of a coach. He should be coaching America's Team, not ol' Red Ball.

* Attaboy, Ricki Fowler. A final-round 61 is a way to make me take notice of you on a weekend when Tiger finished in the Top 10.

* David De Gea is a damn witch. I'm guessing wood and wine tasted better for Jose Mourinho all weekend after that win over Arsenal.

* LeBron's next team... the Philadelphia 76ers.

No. 10 – And Finally …

The dream continues. Nothing but love for the best AISD of the last decade and the best MAC squad in school history.
It can turn just as fast for us. Things change so quickly in college sports. Every day is the worst/best day ever with immediate media.
 
a. Yes, I believe he is, although very quietly.
b. I don't know about home run, but he'd be an excellent hire. I don't know that splashy, home run AD hires really exist.
Just needs to do his job. no home run needed.
 
Rule NO.1 of being a Texas fan... nothing good for Texas comes out of OU winning.... ever.
Anyone that has EVER experienced a full Texas-OU weekend could pull for them. I had to shield my son on the West End from vulgarity. Young and old.
 
It can turn just as fast for us. Things change so quickly in college sports. Every day is the worst/best day ever with immediate media.
I'm not sure I agree with the last part, but I do agree with the first part.
 
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Fair concern.
Which sucks because we really need to have atleast two stacked classes back to back. 2019 has the Oline recruits we need. Herman has his work cut out for him now. He’d be smart to hire Brewster just to combat Jimbo, but that feels like a pipe dream. Is their a reason he doesn’t want Tim? Like dirty past or something?
 
I'm not sure I agree with the last part, but I do agree with the first part.
Not talking about you guys. More national. Not necessarily reality based either. More of the click bait world we now live in.
 
There's basically no one the could have hired outside of Saban, Meyer, Harbaugh or Dabo that would represent a better and more dynamic hire.

They have a guy with a national title. Four of those guys currently exist.

If a school offered Mack 10 years $100mm in 2011 and he left, we would have all laughed.

Now a similar situation happened and you're making it sound like aggy pulled off the biggest coup ever. You could make the case that Fran was a hotter commodity when they hired him.
 
I don't think Fisher ever leaves if Deondre Francois doesn't get hurt
While Fisher is a great hire for Aggy - no disputing that, one thing is certain: Clemson had surpassed FSU as the premier program in the ACC.

Despite losing Francois, how much of a factor do you think Clemson played in his decision?
 
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If a school offered Mack 10 years $100mm in 2011 and he left, we would have all laughed.

Now a similar situation happened and you're making it sound like aggy pulled off the biggest coup ever. You could make the case that Fran was a hotter commodity when they hired him.
Just because you want to compare him to Mack in 2011, that doesn't mean that comparison is a good one.
 
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While Fisher is a great hire for Aggy - no disputing that, one thing is certain: Clemson had surpassed FSU as the premier program in the ACC.

Despite losing Francois, how much of a factor do you think Clemson played in his decision?
good question.

I think, more than anything, that it just became a bad union and he needed a fresh start.

No question that Clemson surpassed FSU as the No.1 program in the ACC, though.
 
The willingness to excuse the 5 win product Jimbo put on the field this year because of his past accomplishments is kind of funny. It's devoid of the reality of this season. Fisher's 2017 rivals Mack's 2010. He ran for the money, don't hate the player, but the dramatic flair over his hire is kind of funny coming off of a season where he won less games than they coach that just got run out of town.

Fisher is a good coach who was at the right place at the right time, as a 3 year HCIW to take over FSU. He already had roots put down. Miami sucked, Urban Meyer walked away, Dabo was just getting started at a weaker brand. His biggest threats early on in that conference were an aging Frank Beamer at V-Tech, Duke, and Georgia Tech. Clemson is now rolling under Dabo and he's lost 3 straight to him. He lost to Miami and he should send thank you cards to UF's athletic department and all of the ACC AD's for allowing that conference to be a bottom dweller among BCS and P5 conferences.

Reality is that he's lost 12 games in 3 years. He epic failed this season with the amount of talent that he's raked in at FSU. No wonder FSU said make a decision bro and go milk someone else, the juice ain't worth the squeeze.

Great coaches don't lose 6 games. If they do, it's early or they've lost it. Nick Saban lost 6 at Bama in year one, hasn't since, & never lost 6 at LSU. Meyer has never lost 6. Chip Kelly never lost 6. Bob Stoops never lost 6. Mack, 2010 not included, didn't lose 6 games for 20 years going back to 1989 at North Carolina. Harbaugh hasn't lost 6 at Michigan. Les Miles never lost 6 at LSU. Hell, up until 2006 when Bobby was struggling, he hadn't lost 6 games at FSU since 1976. The only time Bear Bryant lost 6 games was in his first year at Aggy. Tom Osbourne never lost 6 games at Nebraska. Pete Carrol lost 6 games in his first year at USC and never lost 6 again. Holtz lost 6 in year one at ND and never lost 6 again there. Jim Tressel never lost 6 at Ohio State. Even Lloyd Carr never lost 6 games at Michigan. Spurrier never lost 6 at Florida. Woody Hayes never lost 6 at Ohio State. Switzer never lost 6 OU. Frank Broyles never lost 6 at Arky. DKR never lost 6 here at home.

Bo Shembechler is about the only "great" coach who lost 6 games deep in to a tenure and was able to rebound and win his conference a couple of times.

Fisher is a good coach but he's not a great one. $7.5 million a year... whew buddy.. he better get more win's per million than their history suggest he can. This is going to be epic either way so let's hope we're on the right side of it as history suggests we will be.
Losing his quarterback in the opener was a big deal.

Oh come now, we give Herman shit for being an offensive Guru and failing this year but give Fisher a pass on a QB injury? Fisher doesn’t even have an OC to pass the blame to. Lol, how many QB’s did Sumlin play? 3? One of those great coaches listed above won a national championship with 3 different starting QB’s.

Who has the best West Coast/Pro-Style offense that lives off of the kids coming out of high school in the state of Texas?

You can out talent people and win 10 games a year in the ACC. He gets credit for getting it done early and for beating Michigan in the Orange.. but I’m not overlooking that he got the brakes beat off of him by Oregon and Houston in the two previous years.

Jimbo was trending down. He bolted.
 
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I don't think Fisher ever leaves if Deondre Francois doesn't get hurt

And Williams, etc getting hurt from TX this year. It is a part of the game and if Super Jimbo was a GREAT coach who recruited all this top flight talent then 1 injury would not have gone from #3 preseason, playoff contender to barely bowl eligible. So Jimbo gets a pass and Herman needs to "deal" with it?
 
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If a school offered Mack 10 years $100mm in 2011 and he left, we would have all laughed.

Now a similar situation happened and you're making it sound like aggy pulled off the biggest coup ever. You could make the case that Fran was a hotter commodity when they hired him.

It is 10 years $75mm and Mack wouldn’t have left Texas for money. Especially to go to Aggy.

Fran’s resume wasn’t nearly equivalent to Fishers. He might have been the hot commodity coach, but we have hired two “hot commodity” coaches and so far they have both flamed out. Maybe next time we will hire on proven track record and not hype.
 
Losing his quarterback in the opener was a big deal.
So Fisher loses his starting QB in week 1 and gets a pass on a 5 win season because of it. This happens to Herman, in addition to a number of O linemen who you preached all offseason were irreplaceable, and goes 6-6 against a harder schedule with less talent and yet you shit on him completely.

I also find it ironic that despite his recent struggles and the FSU fan base being completely sick of him, you justify the Fisher hiring because of a handful of 10 win seasons and a national championship with an all time great at QB 5 years ago. Sounds a lot like the situation Mack was pushed out of at Texas. Wonder if you'd be calling it a grand slam "splash" hire if ATM would have committed $75MM to Mack back in 2014.
 
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Oh come now, we give Herman shit for being an offensive Guru and failing this year but give Fisher a pass on a QB injury? Fisher doesn’t even have an OC to pass the blame to. Lol, how many QB’s did Sumlin play? 3? One of those great coaches listed above won a national championship with 3 different starting QB’s.

Who has the best West Coast/Pro-Style offense that lives off of the kids coming out of high school in the state of Texas?

You can out talent people and win 10 games a year in the ACC. He gets credit for getting it done early and for beating Michigan in the Orange.. but I’m not overlooking that he got the brakes beat off of him by Oregon and Houston in the two previous years.

Jimbo was trending down. He bolted.
You really can't compare Jimbo to Herman. One is a made guy and the other has one good season as a head coach.
 
Going to have to agree to disagree about the Jimbo hire.

Guy inherited a program in great shape from Bowden, had a couple of great recruiting classes and one MNC with a Heisman QB. That kid was a frosh so i's not like Jimbo's coaching staff made him great or anything. Now A&M is betting $75mil that a guy who wore out his welcome in Tallahassee (and left the program in worse shape than he inherited it) will make them a legit contender in the West. It's a huge gamble and I am not buying it.

I get that it's a big name hire, but I don't see how he's going to get them above the middle of the pack in that division, much less the SEC, and if Herman takes care of business we should be contending for conference championships very soon.
 
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So Fisher loses his starting QB in week 1 and gets a pass on a 5 win season because of it. This happens to Herman, in addition to a number of O linemen who you preached all offseason were irreplaceable, and goes 6-6 against a harder schedule with less talent and yet you shit on him completely.

I also find it ironic that despite his recent struggles and the FSU fan base being completely sick of him, you justify the Fisher hiring because of a handful of 10 win seasons and a national championship with an all time great at QB 5 years ago. Sounds a lot like the situation Mack was pushed out of at Texas. Wonder if you'd be calling it a grand slam "splash" hire if ATM would have committed $75MM to Mack back in 2014.
I'm not giving him a pass. I'm saying it greatly impacted what happened this season.

You guys comparing him to Mack are just hoping.
 
Going to have to agree to disagree about the Jimbo hire.

Guy inherited a program in great shape from Bowden, had a couple of great recruiting classes and one MNC with a Heisman QB. That kid was a frosh so i's not like Jimbo's coaching staff made him great or anything. Now A&M is betting $75mil that a guy who wore out his welcome in Tallahassee (and left the program in worse shape than he inherited it) will make them a legit contender in the West. It's a huge gamble and I am not buying it.

I get that it's a big name hire, but I don't see how he's going to get them above the middle of the pack in that division, much less the SEC, and if Herman takes care of business we should be contending for conference championships very soon.
The FSU program was in great shape when he inherited it?
 
Fisher the most dynamic hire ever? Hyperbole much? The hire and terms in my opinion were/are monumentally stupid. $75 mm GUARANTEED?!?!?! Are you kidding me? To a guy who just got run out of Tallahassee, and was plainly slipping.

Your saying what A&M did was a big boy move because “they are in it to win it”, is tantamount to praising someone for borrowing money to play blackjack and putting everything into one hand. If he sucks in 3 years they will have to pay that guy $75 mm. Think about that.

C’mon Ketch. Be better
AGREE!!!. A&M loses 5 games next year--minimum.
 
It is 10 years $75mm and Mack wouldn’t have left Texas for money. Especially to go to Aggy.

Fran’s resume wasn’t nearly equivalent to Fishers. He might have been the hot commodity coach, but we have hired two “hot commodity” coaches and so far they have both flamed out. Maybe next time we will hire on proven track record and not hype.

Fran was a bigger hire than Jimbo. Guy was widely considered the hottest young coach at the time, and they stole him from Bama. He was their Herman, though probably a bigger hire than Herman. Jimbo is a coach in his 50's, coming off a 5 win season, leaving a school who really made no effort to keep him. Jimbo may have success at aggy, but really, even if he matches what Sumlin did, which is a longshot, considering Sumlin was their 2nd most successful coach in the history of the program, then he is considered a failure.
 
I'm not giving him a pass. I'm saying it greatly impacted what happened this season.

You guys comparing him to Mack are just hoping.
I don't see how Fisher's situation is much different at all than Mack's. Enlighten me. Both resurrected top flight programs from the dumps, both recruited lights out but were questioned as X's and O's guys, both had a bunch of 10 win seasons (though Mack had more), both won a NC, both won some big bowls, and both were ultimately run out of town because of a combination of bad performance on the field and burnt bridges within the program. You're choosing to ignore the similarities because you've always had a hard on for Jimbo. I'm simply saying if anyone would've committed $75MM to Mack in 2014, we would have all thought they were out of their minds.
 
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