Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Not even The Rona changes expectations for Herman...)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
Flashback: It was almost four months ago when Texas head coach Tom Herman sat down with Anwar Richardson for a live video chat session with Orangebloods and thousands of University of Texas football fans.
During that session, I gave Anwar a rather long and detailed question to specifically ask Herman with regards to expectations for the football program from his perspective.
The question noted among other things ...
* For the last 20 years, I have publicly declared each season that a successful season at The University of Texas can only occur if the Longhorns win a Big 12 title and/or play in a major bowl game.
* In the last 25 years, Texas has won only four conference titles and played in only seven major bowl games.
* Zero conference titles and only one major bowl game in the last decade.
Full disclosure: I prefaced the question by suggesting that people like myself that create such apparent incredible standards for excellence are part of the problem that this program deals with.
His response?
"No, that bar is definitely not too high," he immediately responded.
Herman then paused for a few moments and collected his thoughts.
"I think we have to differentiate success and failure. Successful season? Yes, it's conference title ... major bowl game. We had that two years ago in 2018. We played for the conference title, came up short (and) beat a top-five team in a New Year's Six Bowl game. Good year. Now I wouldn't say the opposite of that is a failure if those things don't happen. Everyone wants to be black and white. You guys always say, 'What percentage? Or on a scale of 1-10. There's a lot of gray. There's a lot of gray. We were really proud of the season we had in 2018. We were proud of the way we finished in 2019, but there's so many different circumstances that apply to each and every season that to say if you didn't win the conference and didn't play in a New Year' Six game … that the season wasn't successful and was a failure ... that to me is not accurate.
"But, the bar for what success is? Yeah, absolutely. Conference title. New Year's Six Bowl games. Playoffs. Absolutely. That should be the bar."
If you're wondering if there's some sort of "gotcha" moment coming in this column regarding his comments, you're not going to find it.
Quite the opposite, actually.
I think I'm 100-percent in line with everything that Herman said, including his comments regarding the term "failure" and how he was reluctant to call anything that isn't a success an absolute failure just because it didn't reach those stated levels of success. It's a bit of a wonky way of refusing to call an 8-win season or any season that comes up short of "success" a "failure" because of the implications that often come with the word, but I feel him.
I get it.
What's most important from my perspective is that he agrees with the notion that I might be a lunatic that needs to be locked up, but not with regards to this matter. On the subject of the bar for success that defines his program ... it’s conference titles, New Year's Six bowl games and making the playoff. Full stop. Anything less than that leaves us in a position of quibbling over the word to call it, but it won't be "success."
So, why am I bringing up a four month old quote if I'm not going to use it in some sort of smart-ass, passive-aggressive, snarky way that I'm sometimes known for?
Three reasons.
a. As the season grows nearer, I thought it was a good idea to reestablish the proper expectations for the 2020 football season, especially when those expectations are co-signed by the CEO of the program.
b. This was the thought pattern in my brain on Sunday and I'm not sure that I had much else inside of it.
c. Expectations almost certainly won't change in the wake of a lingering pandemic.
Once football resumes to the point that the scores of games count and the records of those games are recorded, the expectation for Herman and his program going into year four will be for it to compete and win a conference title, while earning a major bowl game bid in the process.
Those are the goals. Those never stop being the goals.
Those aren't just my words.
They're Herman's as well.
The moment when we all drop our standards for what represents the definition of success is the moment we've ... dare I say ...
Failed.
No. 2 - One more full disclosure ...
This is the Gif I thought of when I imagined @CS and others reading Herman's comments on not winning a conference title not automatically qualifying as a failure.
No. 3 - The most uplifting thing about the 2020 season I can remind you of ...
* Mike Yurich >>> Tim Beck
* Chris Ash >>> Todd Orlando
* Jay Boulware >>> anything Texas cobbled together on special teams in 2019
Man, we can argue about almost anything, but surely we can all agree to the above, right?
Because if we can agree on those three things, we can also acknowledge that those three truths represent a pretty important X-factor when going into the season.
No. 4 - Little nuggets to remember going into the start of practices ...
... We probably can't stress enough how impacted Sam Ehlinger was in 2019 because of his floating rib injury suffered early in the season. Keep in mind that these were the game ratings that he posted in the four weeks following the bye week last year:
at West Virginia: 122.2
vs. Oklahoma: 114.8
vs. Kansas: 172.1
at TCU: 99.1
It wasn't until the final two games of the season against Texas Tech and Utah that Ehlinger posted a single game rating that was as high as any that he had posted in the first four game of the season outside of the Kansas game in week seven. Every other performance in games 5-11 fell below the marks established in games 1-4.
As Herman has let us know during the off-season, that injury was a bigger deal than they every admitted to.
... For all of the memories of the LSU game and a few other low moments in the 2019 season, junior running back Keaontay Ingram still averaged 5.9 yards per carry in 2019 (third-best in the Big 12), had four games of 100+ rushing yards, scored 10 touchdowns (seventh-best in the Big 12) and didn't lose a fumble all year. Those numbers aren't insignificant.
... If we include Brennan Eagles with the company of Roy Williams, Jordan Shipley, Quan Cosby, Limas Sweed, BJ Johnson, Mike Davis, Lil'Jordan Humphrey, Collin Johnson and Devin Duvernay as sophomores, Eagles' numbers in touchdown receptions and yards per catch would rank first and first, respectively.
... According to the Deep Dig stats, Moro Ojomo played in 272 snaps a season ago and finished with a better snaps per production (8.37) than anyone on the defense that received more than 200 snaps.
... In those same Deep Dig stats, Anthony Cook's production per snap was higher than anyone else on the defense with 110 snaps or more.
... Junior Caden Sterns recorded zero interceptions, forced fumbles, fumble recoveries or quarterback hits/pressures in 2019, while only recording a single pass break-up. By comparison, DeMarvion Overshown played in one less game than Sterns and finished with an interception, three pass-break-ups, a quarterback hit and twice as many sacks and (nearly) tackles for loss.
... Junior Joseph Ossai had eight different eight-tackle games in 2019, which is the second most by a Longhorn defender in the last 20 years.
No. 4 - The Longhorns are BACK at Lancaster HS ...
I'm not sure I've ever come right out and explicitly said this before, but I've had a crush on the talent at Lancaster HS for two decades.
Every year, it seems like the school produces difference-making talent. More times than I'd like to count, too much of the speed and raw talent that emerges from the Lancaster program hasn't found success at the major college level. Yet, over the last few years, we've seen the likes of Daeshon Hall, Demontre Hurst and Demarcus Ayers succeed at levels that led the to eventual NFL pastures.
For whatever reason, the Longhorns haven't had a lot of success in recruiting Lancaster High School, as the program hasn't actually signed a player from the school since Larry Dibbles committed to Texas on Christmas Day back in 2001 and eventually developed into a starter on the 2005 national championship team.
It's not that the Longhorns haven't tried. Texas actually had a commitment from Hall before he flipped to Texas A&M. The Longhorns offered LSU freshman running back Kevontre Bradford last year and missed. Same with Omar Manning in 2017.
During the same time frame, Oklahoma has signed four players from Lancaster High, while Baylor has signed six.
Perhaps the landscape for the Longhorns has finally changed with the commitment on Friday of 2022 wide receiver Phaizon Wilson, who just might be the most talented and highly-rated prospect at Lancaster since Dibbles walked inside of its halls nearly two decades ago as a national top 100 prospect.
As someone that looks forward to watching the talent at Lancaster on film each year (I think 2020 defensive back Lorando Johnson was wildly underrated), building roots in a school that has seen a resurgence in recent years towards developing high-level talent is critical. The Longhorns didn't just land a commitment from a future four-star receiver this weekend, they planted roots that might one day lead to more success in an area you want to have some established roots.
No. 6 - The five-time defending Big 12 champions ...
Never take your eye off the enemy, right? Well, the enemy is getting ready to defend its throne.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I'm not sure he had the talent before what happened to him occurred, let alone seven years later.
(Buy) That contract of his represents a massive amount of job security at the moment.
(Sell) I'm selling for now, but we're closer to something like this happening than we've ever been before, especially if power five schools break away from the NCAA in the event fall championships are cancelled.
(Sell) I think the cancellation of that game is a win for Texas.
(Buy) I think Robinson and Wheaton are both closer to six stars than Brown and Gray were, if that makes sense.
(Sell) Not unless injuries hit.
(Sell) We all wish.
(Sell) Part of me thinks he will pick Texas, but the other part realizes that he's not a shoe-in starter at Texas and even if he does transfer to Austin, he's no lock to start half the season.
(Buy) There's a weird little thing behind the scenes that we're aware of that we might be able to talk about once this thing is all over, but for now it has me still buying the Texas side of this.
(Sell) That feels like a bridge too far for me.
(Sell) I'm expecting him to channel his inner-Marvel superhero this season and turn pro. That's good news and bad news at the same time, I suppose.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the world of sports ...
.,.. The NBA set up at Disney not only looks fantastic on TV, but I barely miss the crowds. TV packaging is a hell of a thing. I expect the NFL to pull this off as well.
... How the hell did T.J. Warren drop 53 points on the Sixers in Philly's first game back?
... Rob Manfred is something else ...
... It's kind of hard to get into Major League Baseball when your team is one game into the season and suddenly dealing with a virus shutdown. Thanks, Marlins. But, hey, we're only two games out of first place!
... My issue with Major League Baseball during a pandemic is the sheer volume of games and travel involved in playing 60 games. I know it sounds crazy, but if there was ever a year for MLB to tinker with a 36-game, 3 month schedule with games played on the weekends only, this was the year.
... Attaboy, Arsenal.
... Christian Pulisic had a chance to be the star of the entire USA sports weekend, but another injury overshadowed the fact that he became the first American to ever score in an FA Cup Final and the youngest player to do so since a guy named Cristiano Ronaldo.
... I've watched almost every second of the MLS is Back Tournament Knockout Stage. I don't know how to feel about this accomplishment. If you've never watched an MLS game, but have considered it lately, check out Wednesday's Philadelphia/Portland game.
... I missed not having a UFC event on the non-streaming ESPN channels this weekend.
... Golf will absolutely have my attention next week with the arrival of the first major of the year, otherwise known as the Brooks Koepka Show.
... Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the Larry Bird of Tomatoes.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Movie Sequels ...
10. Superman II
9. Star Trek II: Wrath of Khan
8. Aliens
7. The Bourne Supremacy
6. Toy Story III
5. Rocky IV
4. The Empire Strikes Back
3. The Dark Knight
2. Silence of the Lambs
1. The Godfather II
No.10 - And finally...
We don't deserve dogs, but they have us anyway.
Beverly Hills Cop 2 needs to be on this list.
It was on the list at one point. Tough cut.Good list. I'd find a way to include The Color of Money. Paul Newman's greatest performance as Fast Eddie Felson.
Eagles is such a downfield weapon, I kind of think yards is the area he would have the best chance of winning.
I don't think Texas would win the game and losing it has too much downside.
Play the Big 12 schedule.... manage it... you're golden.
You have good taste@Ketchum , you nailed the Lancaster situation....wouldn't mind something similar happeing at Duncanville, Galena Park Northshore, Cedar Hill, and DeSoto.....I don't ask for much, do I?
It's not that the Longhorns haven't tried. Texas actually had a commitment from Hall before he flipped to Texas A&M. The Longhorns offered LSU freshman running back Kevontre Bradford last year and missed. Same with Omar Manning in 2017.
During the same time frame, Oklahoma has signed four players from Lancaster High, while Baylor has signed six.
Ketch,
You’re probably tired of this point by me but I’m not sure Texas has ever recovered from Fred (hey-diddle-diddle-let’s-run-up-the-middle) Akers complete ceding of the DFW Metroplex when he stated that East Texas and Houston could provide all Texas would need. There are still coaches who talk about that in McKinney, Plano, Arlington and other places in and around DFW that will take a call or open a door first for the okies or ags and still feel Texas has to prove that they’re there to stay. In isolated cases, the Horns have “dropped in” when there is a highly touted recruit they want to vie for but the okies and ags are there every year, keeping those relationships and lines of communication with players and coaches.
I’m not sure if TH can fix that but it, like the facilities at UT when Mack was hired, are in “dire need of repair”.
Thoughts?
Hook’em!
During the same time frame, Oklahoma has signed four players from Lancaster High, while Baylor has signed six.
Ketch,
You’re probably tired of this point by me but I’m not sure Texas has ever recovered from Fred (hey-diddle-diddle-let’s-run-up-the-middle) Akers complete ceding of the DFW Metroplex when he stated that East Texas and Houston could provide all Texas would need. There are still coaches who talk about that in McKinney, Plano, Arlington and other places in and around DFW that will take a call or open a door first for the okies or ags and still feel Texas has to prove that they’re there to stay. In isolated cases, the Horns have “dropped in” when there is a highly touted recruit they want to vie for but the okies and ags are there every year, keeping those relationships and lines of communication with players and coaches.
I’m not sure if TH can fix that but it, like the facilities at UT when Mack was hired, are in “dire need of repair”.
Thoughts?
Hook’em!
Yeah... you know UT's recent OOC record on the road, right? OOC record in the last 10 years?
That game is supposed to be a month away.
Texas hasn't even held a full pads practice in 2020.
Let's not be naive because our pride gets in the way.
Eagles definitely has BEAST potrntial. If he can stay locked in, I agree he will really put up some totals.
Rocky II is incredibly slow.
Rocky IV is like a music video.
As a kid of the 80s, I love the montages.
I've never heard the people of South Dallas mention Akers.
I have heard a lot of people from South Dallas in the last 25 years mention UT's problematic history with race, but not nearly as much as the talk existed before Mack Brown arrived.
Mack changed the way multiple generations of people talked about UT football.
Totally agree with this but why don’t you think we win? Surely the 2020 Longhorns are a better team on paper than a completely retooled LSU team no? plus the addition of COVID which will drastically reduce their home field crowd advantage making it almost a moot point?
Best returning QB we’ve had in 10 years. Best OC/DC, OL, DL, DBs we’ve had in several years. Their returning QB hasn’t been tested so I will take our full pad ready over LSU. Yes, I am proud to be a Horn fan but comparing this team with its experience (especially at QB) to the ones over the past 10 years is disingenuous as well. Would college football be shocked if we lost a close game to LSU in Death Valley? No. Would it be if we ran over them like the bowls against GA and Utah? Yes. Upside is greater than downside.
No, I don't assume that at all.
I think that's the kind of delusion a fan buys into. The reality is that this team has been awful in OOC in the last decade, especially against teams with a pulse.
Has this team practiced in pads?
Have these new coaches had a full pads practice with their new players?
Did this team just a year ago perform so poorly in terms of consistency that the head coach needed to fire seven coaches and you could argue it needed to be more?
I mean... come on. Put the confirmation bias aside and look at thuis realistically.
Yep, this is a hope and nothing more until they prove it on the field. Hell, we all thought Orlando was going to the CFB Hall of Fame after his first year as DC and two years later he can't even make it to the bowl game before being fired.
LSU has not practiced in pads as well. They will replace arguably their most important offensive coach and the QB who had one of the best all time seasons as a QB. We have been reading (in OB I think) about how Sam’s injury had a real impact on the team - he will be healthy.
One can actually look at the situation and say we would have had a decent shot at winning that game and the upside of winning would have been greater than the downside of a loss. I notice you don’t address those points - you merely get into name calling like saying “pride gets in the way” or “confirmation bias” when someone has a different perspective. Ketch is going to Ketch....
Ok, but one guy has a national title as an DC and the other guy is Todd Orlando.
If John Harbaugh took the job in 2021, would we need to hold back in saying he's better than Herman just because he hasn't succeeded at Texas?
Texas fans are gonna Texas fans, I suppose.
This program hasn't proven it can walk and chew gum at the same time in the last 10 years and after a season in which it needed to fire 70-percent of the staff....
Texas walks in with no practices, a ton of unproven players all over the field and wins at a place almost no team ever wins... just because "we're Texas"
My strong contention is that playing in Baton Rouge in the second game of the season isn't good business right now. If that game were in week 10.... hey... go play it. I find it naive to be so confident about this team right now. I don't mean to sound like an ass, but this is a middle of the pack program with fans pretending it deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as LSU based on one performance early from last season that proved to be a rare exception of quality.
Those teams play 10 times in 2019... and LSU beats Texas by 20 in 7 of them.
@Ketchum
ok you didn't ask me but around the coordinator improvements....
The exact thing you just cited on Ash is why OC isn't an auto upgrade
Our last OC wasn't Beck - it was Herman / who was an OC for a National Title....but still can't figure out how stupid his RB alignment and play tipping is / can't even acknowledge it afterwards.
Is the new OC really running the show? remains to be seen. does the new OC control RB substitution? remains to be seen. Does the new OC control RB alignment? remains to be seen.
If the new OC was SOOOOO amazing - why wasn't he an OC last year?
I'm hopeful....but counting them as upgrades is the kind of moronic logic that fans do ----- THAT YOU JUST REFERENCED IN THIS THREAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ok you didn't ask me but around the coordinator improvements....
The exact thing you just cited on Ash is why OC isn't an auto upgrade
Our last OC wasn't Beck - it was Herman / who was an OC for a National Title....but still can't figure out how stupid his RB alignment and play tipping is / can't even acknowledge it afterwards.
Is the new OC really running the show? remains to be seen. does the new OC control RB substitution? remains to be seen. Does the new OC control RB alignment? remains to be seen.
If the new OC was SOOOOO amazing - why wasn't he an OC last year?
I'm hopeful....but counting them as upgrades is the kind of moronic logic that fans do ----- THAT YOU JUST REFERENCED IN THIS THREAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
a. That's fine.
b. Sometimes the devil you know is all that matters. My thoughts on these coaches being upgrades are based on some common sense and some confirmation bias against those I just watched.
Tom Herman isn't great at game management, but I didn't need to see him in action to know he would be a better game manager than Charlie Strong, who never proved he could count in intervals of 40 seconds.
Same reasoning around the DC
I'm hopeful he's better but......
All his great results thus far seem to be in the Big 10 / and going back a few years rather than immediately.....
How many spread teams has he faced? I don't care how he's going to do against Michigan or Wisconsins run game / I care about how he's going to do against Oklahoma How were his defenses doing the last few years at Rutgers?
Counting upgrades before we see things is dumb. You're talking in absolutes
I'm hopeful he's better but......
All his great results thus far seem to be in the Big 10 / and going back a few years rather than immediately.....
How many spread teams has he faced? I don't care how he's going to do against Michigan or Wisconsins run game / I care about how he's going to do against Oklahoma How were his defenses doing the last few years at Rutgers?
Counting upgrades before we see things is dumb. You're talking in absolutes
Is Bill Walsh in his prime better than Tom Herman?
I mean... you can say yes... but how do you KNOW?
He only did it in the NFL.
