I don't know.
As we head into a pretty critical college football season around these parts, I'm leading off with an acknowledgement that many of you have been waiting to hear from me for more than 20 years.
With recruiting in the state of Texas and the regions around it as competitive as it has ever been, there will be events that occur in the next few months that could/will shift the dynamics of the immediate future significantly.
My problem is that my personal crystal ball is cloudy as hell.
For instance, let's start with Steve Sarkisian's Texas Longhorns.
On one hand, you're got a team with as good of a one-two running back/wide receiver punch as anyone in the country. That's not hyperbole, either. Bijan Robinson and Xavier Worthy are that good. Meanwhile, when you add in the rest of the running backs, wide receivers and tight ends that are on the two-deep, we're probably talking about a group of players that should be playing for significant things during the season ... Heisman invites, all-America honors, NFL draft positioning ... and yes ... championships.
On the other hand, this is a Texas team that is young and inexperienced at both the quarterback position and along the offensive line, it lacks definite playmakers on a defense that was abysmal a season ago and the kicking game is an Elmo shrug gif just waiting to happen.
Then there's Sarkisian, himself. As the 48-year-old enters his ninth season as a head coach, we're all still waiting to see whether he can be better than just a pretty good collegiate head coach. We know he's pocket aces as an offensive coordinator, but nothing about last season suggested he is anywhere near that as a head coach.
It makes predicting this season's results a total guessing game.
Speaking of guessing games, what exactly are we to make of Oklahoma's first-year head coach Brent Venables?
While Oklahoma fans are going crazy over the idea of an unproven career assistant replacing a championship/Heisman contender creating witch of a head coach in Lincoln Riley, are we supposed to completely ignore the fact that the OU roster is not anywhere near as good as it was a year ago when the team didn't qualify for the Big 12 Championship game?
Dillion Gabriel is a good quarterback, but can he be better than just a guy that puts up good numbers against average to below average teams? Meanwhile, a look at the rest of the roster sees a decrease in talent across the board in a lot of key areas.
It's a lot to ask of a guy that hasn't coached his first game to come out of the shoot as an elite option in what should be a very competitive Big 12.
Meanwhile, over in College Station, Jimbo Fisher heads into year five with a record with the Aggies that resembles ... Tom Herman's.
Seriously.
While Herman went 32-18 (64% win percentage) in four seasons at Texas, won a single major bowl game, went undefeated in bowl games and had a single top-10 finish, Fisher has gone 34-14 for 70% win percentage, won a single major bowl game, is semi-undefeated in bowl games and also has a single top-10 finish. Outside of the COVID year in 2020, Fisher has lost at least four games in every season he's coached with the Aggies.
With a talent-loaded roster, the pressure for Fisher to take this program to the next level is increasing and there are expectations that this is the year that it will happen. There's just one small problem ... they might be very average at the quarterback position ... again.
Will it happen this season? Maybe. The schedule seems ready-made for such a leap, but if you forced me to bet a paycheck on the outcome of the season for A&M ...
Wait for it ...
Wait for it ...
Hell, this season is so fascinating at every turn and I'm not even including the puzzle-fest that is Brian Kelly down in Baton Rouge.
The smart money on Texas, Oklahoma and Texas A&M probably has each of them finishing the year with at least three or four losses.
What would that mean for the long-term recruiting outlook for each school if such a thing occurs? The smart money is that the dynamics probably wouldn't change much from 2023 to 2024, but the margins are already so fine among the very elite of the elite blue-chip prospects that any single movement in either direction for all three could sway momentum significantly.
In a season of uncertainty, the one thing that does remain certain is that if you're not moving forward, you're moving backwards.
No. 2 - Casey Thompson sends a number of reminders ...
Whenever I've thought about Casey Thompson this off-season, it's been hard not to think of last fall when Steve Sarkisian was asked if he felt either Thompson or Hudson Card had earned a vote of confidence going into the 2022 season.
Sarkisian not only passed on the opportunity, but he basically signaled to the heavens that he'd much rather have a different quarterback deciding wins and losses in 2022. About a month later, Quinn Ewers was a Longhorn and the writing on the wall with regards to the quarterback position was known.
Therefore, when Thompson took the field against Northwestern on Saturday, it was a chance for the second-guessing to begin. With a big performance, you could almost hear the chatter of whether Texas would be better in 2022 with Thompson as the starting quarterback instead of Ewers. For an hour on Saturday, you could sense it coming.
Yet, before the second-guessing could reach a fever pitch, Thompson discombobulated in the late stages of the game, along with his head coach and the rest of his teammates in what turned out to be an awful season-opening 31-28 loss.
Like so many times, you couldn't really blame Thompson for what happened, but like so many other times, he wasn't good enough to lift his teammates out of a tight spot when they needed him to rise up. Instead, he turned the ball over.
Sometimes the devil you know is better than the one you don't. Just not in this case. In this case, Texas needed to make a change at the position and roll the dice with talented youth.
Best of luck to Thompson all season. I hope he has a hell of a year. Yet, when I look at the long list of things the Longhorns could use right now for the 2022 season, his name doesn't really come to mind.
No. 3 - Scattershooting on the last week ...
* Probably the most important thing that I can pass along is that redshirt freshman starting quarterback Quinn Ewers hasn't looked back since winning the job. It's probably way too much to say he's looked like a completely different player, but he's certainly operating at a higher level through the last week than he was at the beginning of camp. Until he's done with the developmental part of his career, I think everyone knows what it will likely get from the quarterback position ... a range of highs and lows. The gut feeling from within the program is that the highs will greatly outnumber the lows.
* I asked a source inside the program this week about Barryn Sorrell because it seems like there's been less buzz about him in the last few weeks than there was in the spring. "I don't know how many sacks he's going to have or if he's an all-Big 12 player or anything like that, but I can tell you that he's vital to our defense. There might be a bigger gap between him and the next guy up at the Jack than anywhere else on the defense.”
* Confidence remains high for Jaylan Ford at middle linebacker. "He's not the same player from 2021," one source said. "I think he's among the least of our concerns."
* I asked one person in the program this week which member of the 2022 recruiting class would he call the best through training camp and on the eve of the opening game. He replied, "Kelvin Banks, DJ Campbell, Jaylon Guilbeau and Ethan Burke, in that order."
* The same source predicted that Burke would be starting at the Buck position by the Oklahoma game.
* Alfred Collins simply didn't have the camp he needed to have. It seems like his hand is closer to the wall the light switch is on, rather than the light switch itself.
* Expect Byron Murphy and Keondre Coburn to play as co-starters and to rotate a lot. The bigger question at the position right now is just how much playing time is available for T'Vondre Sweat.
* Devin Richardson had a better camp in 2022 than in 2021 and he still lost out in a battle for a back-up job to Jett Bush. No bueno.
* One person told me this week that D'Shawn Jamison was easily the better camp performer than Ryan Watts if you wanted to compare the two starters side by side. "If Jamison plays poorly in games this season, then practice will never matter again because he's looked so good. Watts is the player I think our opponents will target.”
No. 4 - Predicting the 2022 Big 12 ...
How about this for calling my shot?
I'm predicting that Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Texas all finish the year with a 6-3 record in conference play, while Kansas State finishes one game back at 5-4.
For those unfamiliar with what would happen, let me whip out the rule book on such an event.
"If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 4 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the regular season game between the two tied teams shall prevail."
1. The Conference records of the three or more teams will be compared against each other in a “mini round-robin” format.
2. The Conference records of the three or more teams will be compared against the remaining team(s) in the Conference standings from top to bottom.
a. When comparing against the remaining teams in the Conference standings any two-way ties will be broken by head-to-head competition before the comparison begins.
b. If more than a two-way tie exists amongst the remaining teams in the Conference standings, the record against the collective tied teams as a group will be used.
3. Scoring differential among the tied teams. The team or teams with the lowest difference between points scored and points allowed in games vs. the tied teams is eliminated from consideration.
4. Draw (In the event steps 1-3 cannot break a multi-team tie the prevailing team or teams will be determined by draw at the Conference office).
Overall predictions...
Big 12 champion: Baylor
Offensive player of the year: RB Bijan Robinson (Texas)
Defensive player of the year: OLB Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech)
Freshman of the year: OL Kelvin Banks (Texas)
Coach of the year: Dave Aranda, Baylor
No. 5 - Some notes on the enemies ...
... La-Monroe head coach Terry Bowden named returning quarterback Chandler Rogers as the starter going into the Texas game, which has to be a little bit of a disappointment when you consider he only posted a 137 quarterback efficiency a year ago and the position as a whole only had 15 touchdown passes in 12 games. The former Mansfield Lake Ridge player isn't big (6-0, 194 pounds) and finished last season by posting an efficiency rating below 105.9 in three of his final four games. "(Rogers) has a little more game experience under his belt, and perhaps, in the end, that was the difference because he showed a little more veteran poise in the pocket,"
Bowden said.
... Alabama's projected running back depth will
likely look like this coming into the season:
Jahmyr Gibbs, Jr.
Jase McClellan, Jr.
Trey Sanders, R-Jr./Roydell Williams, Jr.
Jamarion Miller, Fr.
... One of the surprise position battles for the Tide has been at left guard, as sixth-year former role player Kendall Randolph has emerged as a possible starter over returner Javion Cohen. It could set up a very interesting left side of the line for the Tide, with Randolph teaming up with Vanderbilt transfer Tyler Sheen. There's still very much a sense of uncertainty with the overall Alabama offensive line.
... Alabama's starting defensive line will likely look like this:
DE Justin Eboigbe (Senior)
DT D.J. Dale (Senior)
DE Byron Young (Senior)
... Remember when Texas was hopeful that Alabama linebacker Jaylen Moody would enter the Portal because he was tired of riding the pine and being nothing more than a back-up? Well, he's emerged as the likely starter at Will linebacker, although Deontae Lawson might take his job if he's not ultra-productive.
... Texas Tech's offensive line is a major area of concern going into the season, as it looks to replace the three best players from a decent group from a year ago. I'm not sure that anyone in Lubbock really knows what to think about this unit.
... Former Longhorns player Tyler Owens has not made much of a dent thus far in Lubbock and might end up running with the scout team.
... One look at Oklahoma State's two-deep heading into its season-opener has me believing that it’s the most overrated team in the Big 12, but I know Mike Gundy will have them playing good football by October.
No. 6 - Recruiting scatter shots ...
... Arch's weekend...
... BIG man touchdown
... Dekaney wide receiver Jonah Wilson might be the most underrated player in the current commitment group (feel free to go to the 1:10 mark)...
... This is a dude you make room for in my estimation...
... Just Cedric Baxter doing Cedric Baxter things...
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) I'm going to go out on a limb and say he finishes the season with a half-dozen.
(Sell) I don't know if Brent Venables is going to be any good this year, but I have to believe his defense will be better than that.
(Buy) That's a pretty huge number, but Vegas is Vegas for a reason. The final result will probably be somewhere in that ball park.
(Sell) No excuses. He's a great talent and it's time for him to be a great player. The thing he's missing more than anything in a quest to be between Earl (4,443 yards) and Ricky (6,279 yards) is merely playing a fourth season in Austin more than anything else.
(Buy) Generally speaking, absolutely. I would merely state that every recruit has a different story and set of circumstances. I'm not a big fan of talking in such absolutes.
(Sell) I'm honestly not sure which question is sillier at this point. Are you trolling me?
(Sell/sell/sell) - Those projections are just a little too ambitious for my taste at this point, especially with regards to the defensive linemen. Also, I'm not sure it will take a whole staff position to determine which Michigan commitment to poach each year, even if I like your aggressiveness with spending Chris Del Conte's money.
(Sell) It probably should be 4-1 entering that game, but I'm all out of benefit of the doubt for programs that haven't come close to earning it.
(Sell) I'm not projecting that at all.
(Sell) - Not yet, but that's mainly because I haven't been to a Central Market yet to get some. I'm a fan of mustard, so I'm definitely game to try it.
(Buy) Give me Kelvin Banks, DJ Campbell and Burke for freshman honors.
(Buy/Sell/Buy/Sell) Rollins was the lightening rod for the greatest era of Phillies baseball... ever. That's no slight at Harper, as much as it's an acknowledgement that it's a tall ask. Meanwhile, Burrell hit nearly 300 home runs in his career. Considering the odds of becoming a MLB player, even as the No.1 overall pick, I'd be hard-pressed to call him a bust. Iverson dragged a team to the NBA Finals that Charles Barkley would have won 30 games with. Finally, Kruk was a career .300 hitter with .842 OPS. That rank in the Top 10 of the National League in 2022.
No. 8 - Scattershooting ...
... Ahem...
... What exactly is Nebraska going to do after it fires Scott Frost? Hire Tom Herman?
... Tom Brady at 45 is more relatable than he's been in a long time: "We all have really unique challenges to our life. I'm 45 years old, man. There's a lot of shit going on. Just gotta try to figure out life the best you can. It's a continuous process."
... Cowboys first-round pick Tyler Smith couldn't beat out Connor McGovern at left guard, but with the injury to Tyron Smith he's .... *gulp* ... going to start at left tackle?
... I hope this isn't a hot take and I hope I'm wrong, but I'm not sure the Cowboys are going to go better than 9-8 this season.
... Not gonna lie... this is kind of dope.
... Sam Ehlinger could not have done more to win a job this summer with the Colts, yet there is still some doubt as to whether the team will keep three quarterbacks.
... This mascot was catching bodies on the way to the end zone.
... Damn, man... Rory came and took Scottie's Fed-Ex cornbread. I did not see that one coming. Still, Scottie had a great season. It's just a shame that ended like it did.
... Russell Westbrook and Patrick Beverly playing on the same team is a sign that the apocalypse might be upon us.
... Charles Barkley, on Kevin Durant, via Arizona Sports 98.7 FM:
"He gets mad when we say it, he piggybacked on the Warriors to win his first two championships, but if you go back and look at his career, as the best player and being a leader that all goes with that, he's been an abject failure. I mean, every time he's been like the guy who has to be the leader and the best player he has not had success."
I'm a pretty huge Barkley fan as a lifelong Sixers fan, but there's literally not one thing in Barkley's career that surpasses Durant's accomplishments. It should be said that the Sixers went 35-47 in his last season in Philly before he barged his way out of Philly, while never getting beyond the Eastern Conference semis in his final seven seasons as "the best player." His Sixers missed the playoffs twice in that time.
...
The 1952 Topps Mantle Card is still the Holy Grail. I can't believe someone had a graded 9.5 on that card. Amazing.
... Manchester United is about to spend 100 million on a player that has never scored 10 goals in the Eredivisie.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Eagles songs ...
Nearly 10 years ago,
I did this list for the first time. I remember people hating it.
Will it go any better 10 years later? How different is my list following another decade?
The No.1 is as obvious as obvious gets, but it gets pretty wild after that.
Just missed the cut: The Long Run, Tequila Sunrise, Wasted Time, The Best of My Love, New Kid In Town, In the City, Love Will Keep us Alive, Lyin Eyes and Victim of Love
10. One of These Nights
9. Heartache Tonight
8. Witchy Woman
7. Life in the Fast Lane
6. Already Gone
5. I Can't Tell You Why
4. Take it to the Limit
3. Take it Easy
2. Desperado
1. Hotel California
No. 10 - And Finally ...
I was thinking earlier this week that it's been 25 years since Ricky Williams was a junior playing for John Mackovic, which made me feel really, really old.
Then I saw this...
