Here's the thing ... I want to be wrong.
With every fiber in my body, I want to be wrong. For the entire off-season, I've seen one person after another peg the 2023 Texas Longhorns as potential playoff contenders, while I've been sitting on a 9-3 record and there's consistently one thought inside of my head.
I hope I'm wrong.
Understand that nothing would be better for business, both on Orangebloods.com and our growing Orangebloods Live venture, than to have this team embark on a special season. Just typing it gives me the tingles. If I could will it into existence, man, would I give it a go.
Also, there would almost certainly be zero downside if I joined the masses and predicted an 11-1 season. Hell, many of you would applaud me for it, suggesting along the way that my ... ahem ... you know whats had grown in size.
It's not like botched pre-season predictions have cut my legs out from under me in the past. After all, I once suggested that Garrett Gilbert was the next big thing and that the 2010 Texas Longhorns would win the Big 12 title. You guys didn't burn me at the stake for that errant prediction. So, what's the fuss with just typing 10-2 or 11-1 and letting the chips fall where they may land, especially when former Heisman winners are stepping out on the limb with these Longhorns?
Hell, even Kirk Bohls is predicting that the Longhorns land in the playoffs.
I suppose it merely comes down to this ... for better or worse, I'm always going to be true to myself and my readers. It's not that I'm
trying to zag when everyone else is zigging.
From where I'm sitting, I still think this program is a year away from truly competing for really big things. It still needs to learn how to win in big moments. It still needs to learn how to play consistently, week in and week out. It still needs to learn how to play at its highest levels on the road. It still needs another year for all of the super blue-chip talent on hand to grow up a little.
People will see a 9-3 prediction that I think comes with a bid in the Big 12 title game and they'll ask if my hesitation is related to questions about starting quarterback Quinn Ewers and Steve Sarkisian.
Yup, them, too.
It's not any one thing as much as it's all of the questions I have and hurdles this team has to prove it can clear all rolled into one that has me slightly cooler than a lot of others.
I'm reminded that Mack Brown's team of super blue chips didn't blow down the house with its first few huffs and puffs. Its first true swing of things in 2001 ended in disappointment, with a quarterback and head coach that weren't quite ready for prime time. It took another three seasons and a different quarterback before one of Mack's teams was truly ready to not only reach for greatness, but to grab it.
While an occasional TCU will come out of nowhere and skip a few steps in the standard winning learning curve, it typically doesn't go that way. In almost every instance, efforts to cheat the process gets swatted back.
The last time we saw this team play in a game that counted, it was losing by three scores five minutes into the fourth quarter. The game before that one, Steve Sarkisian admittedly (and rightfully) took the ball out of his quarterback's hands in the fourth quarter out of caution. Two games before that, the offense couldn't score a single touchdown at home. Two weeks before that, it blew a 31-17 second-half lead in Stillwater.
Does that read like a team that's suddenly ready to be among the best in the country?
I'm convinced that this is going to be a hell of a fun season with a team that should score a ton of points over 12 games. The defense looks like it might be even better than I would have guessed a month ago.
Glory with a developing roster is going to come, but perhaps it won't quite be the glory we tell our grandchildren about.
We might still be a year away from that.
Don't shoot the messenger. Please know he's ready to accept your ridicule with glee if he's wrong.
No. 2 - August Training Camp Awards ...
With the first game week of the season upon us, let's hand out some August camp awards.
Offensive MVP - A.D. Mitchell
Defensive MVP - Alfred Collins
Most Improved - Quinn Ewers
Top Transfer In - AD Mitchell
Top True Freshman - (tie) Anthony Hill and Malik Muhammad
Top Redshirt Freshman - Neto Umeozulu
Top Sophomore - Kelvin Banks
Top Back-up quarterback - Arch Manning
Biggest Offensive Breakthrough - DJ Campbell
Biggest Defensive Breakthrough - Ethan Burke
Biggest Surprise - Gavin Holmes
Comeback Kid - Isaiah Neyor
Strongest position group - Wide Receivers
Best training camp battles - WRs vs DBs
No. 3 - Final Camp Impressions ...
... Anthony Hill looks to be every bit the future physical dominating presence that he was expected to be when he was recruited. On a team full of very good defensive players, no one on that side of the ball is described as a pure weapon quite like Hill is described as one.
... Former star linebacker Brian Jones attended practice last week and mentioned that the thing that he noticed more than anything else was how few corrections were needed to be made in practice because players knew where they were supposed to be and what to do. If anything all off-season almost bumped me into a 10-2 record this season, it was those comments.
... It was a fairly quiet camp for Ja'Tavion Sanders. I'm guessing that won't mean much when the season begins, but it's a note worth filing away if he starts slow.
... Second-year edge players Justice Finkley and J'Mond Tapp are still looking for the light switches. I'm not quite sure what to expect from them this season.
... At some point this season, Ryan Niblett is going to be trending on social media. I can just feel a big out-of-nowhere performance coming from the kid. Too many people have seen him and raved about him.
... There's a future secondary out there that features Terrance Brooks and Malik Muhammad as starting cornerbacks, Derek Williams and Jordan Johnson-Rubell as the safeties, while Jelani McDonald holds things down in the nickle. Holy hell, that's promising. Maybe throw Kobe Black's name in there as well.
... Quinn Ewers season prediction: 322 of 480 attempts, 3,900 yards, 34 touchdowns and 8 interceptions (155.38 efficiency rating)
... Running back prediction: C.J. (don't call him Gary) Baxter takes over the starting running back duties BEFORE the Oklahoma game.
... I'm not sure Ryan Watts and Terrance Brooks had better camps than Gavin Holmes and Malik Muhammad. There's some serious depth at cornerback.
... Take a senior punter in the Portal every off-season.
No. 4 - Last Looks at the Scholarship Board Entering the Season ...
No. 5 - A Dominick McKinley Futurecast...
Ready or not, Dominick McKinley is headed for a decision.
OU doesn't seem overly enthusiastic about its chances. Same with LSU. Ohio State and Texas A&M loom as possible party spoilers, but the team that seems to be out in front is Texas.
So much so that I've decided to enter a Futurecast for the Longhorns.
I feel like I should note that my No. 1 source hasn't yet indicated that it's definitely going to be the Longhorns, but lots of non-No. 1 sources have indicated that a lot of confidence exists. I'm taking a little bit of a leap of faith ...
No. 6 - Scattershooting on Recruiting ...
... Holy **** Commit Performance of the Week: Wide receiver Parker Livingstone
I don't even know what to say about a season-opening performance that witnessed him catch 12 passes for 252 yards and three touchdowns, along with a 52-yard touchdown pass and a 99-yard kickoff return for a touchdown that was called back because of a penalty. Sir, you have my attention ...
... Holy **** Non-Commit Performance of the Week: Wide receiver Dakorian Moore
The Longhorns are going to have to flip this kid from LSU. Simple as that.
... What are they putting in the drinking water at Gal Ball?
... This kid might seriously be a five-star.
... Speaking of 5-stars...
... Saw this
update on 2024 DE Danny Okoye on Saturday on SI.com and thought sharing a few of the quotes was worth our time.
On the Longhorns: “Texas has been the one — I just was on an OV down there last month, month before last — the vibes were immaculate. Everybody there has a huge smile on their face and they're so welcoming. It was definitely one of my favorite visits by far.”
On the Sooners: “Oklahoma just knows how to show love, man. All the coaches there, we are best friends. I mean, I have all of their numbers saved. I’d say that I call them maybe on a bi-daily basis. So the connection’s there. I believe that's a big part of the factors that would go into me choosing or making a decision, is the connection that I have with the coaching staff and with, you know, the faculty and all of them. So I definitely feel that connection with OU.”
“Coach (Miguel) Chavis, Coach Venables, Coach (Todd) Bates, Coach (Ted) Roof, all of them guys. They’re my people,” he said. “ ... The relatability. They take the time to get to know you on a personal level. They're very in depth. When they're recruiting somebody, they're not just recruiting you for what you can do, they're recruiting you for who you are. And that's a very big, very big factor.”
No. 7 - Orangebloods Live Latest...
Three quick announcements ...
1. As we mentioned earlier on Sunday, we're launching a new weekday show from 6:30-7:30 a.m. called "Horns Up!", featuring Orangebloods columnist Travis Galey, Texas Longhorn Twitter and YouTube extraordinaire Justin Nash (better known as
@Nash Talks Texas) and Orangebloods’ own baseball writer Aaron Little.
Our daily line-up now looks like this:
(6:30-7:30 am) Horns Up! with Travis Galey, Aaron Little and Justin Nash
(8:00-11:000am) The Old Fashioned with Anwar Richardson
(12:00-3:00pm) House Divided with Chad Hastings and some loudmouth bald guy.
(3:30-5:30pm) Football With Friends with Alex Dunlap
2. I'm really excited to announce that Chad Hastings and I will be hosting live watch-a-long videos during every Texas game this season (and occasional A&M games). Who needs the network announcers when you can have our version of Mystery Science Theater 3000/Statler and Waldorf from The Muppets.
3. As we've done for every game since 2015,
@Anwar Richardson,
@Suchomel and I will be holding things down in the post-game show, which will start as soon as every game concludes.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) Yes, I think the defense will be a plus-unit and will be better than last year's defense.
(Sell) Evan Stewart is going to be a Biletnikoff award semi-finalist.
(Buy) Give me the field. Repeating is hard work.
(Sell) I think he'll end up being a 5.9 graded receiver and inside the top 100, though.
(Sell) I don't think it'll have an advantage along the line on either line of scrimmage. In fact, the biggest mismatch of the game might be Alabama's interior defensive line against the Texas interior of the offensive line.
(Sell) I do think they have one.
(Buy) I think all three quarterbacks will attempt at least one pass against Rice.
(Sell) Let's start with the Big 12 this year and work our way on from there.
(Sell) Big 2 officials are terrible. I've been predicting a loss impacted by the officials for eight months.
(Buy) I do not believe that Big 12 higher ups will direct it. They won't need to.
(Buy) This is hell of a freshman class. It has some 2002 vibes.
(Sell) It sounds like something I could see Mack using.
(Buy) Yes. Daniels, Worthy, Ewers and Blake Corum.
(Buy) No doubt in mind if he stays healthy and Ewers plays 12 games.
(Sell) Give me Gavin Holmes.
(Buy) Sell. I think e'll see Sarkisian treat this like he did the 2021 quarterback decision. He'll do everything in his power to keep both quarterbacks.
(Sell) Give me the field.
No. 9 - Scattershooting on anything and everything ...
... Love seeing local boy Jaden Greathouse kick ass in the first game of his career for the Irish. That kid is going to be a handful for the next 3-4 years.
... Super Blue Chips Matter.
... I don't mind the Trey Lance lottery ticket that the Cowboys purchased, especially if they plan on exiting the Dak Era at any time in the next few years. Finding difference-makers at the position is so hard that I'm ok with them spending a valuable fourth-round pick in the name of getting a head start on locating the long-term future.
... Jerry Jones on the move: "Didn't cross my mind, period, about an impact here regarding Dak." I don't believe you, Jerry.
... I watched about as much of the Dallas pre-season as starters played in the games. Let's get the real thing started.
... It says a lot that Scottie Scheffler shot a 65 on Friday at the Tour Championship and still finished two touchdowns behind Viktor Hovland for the win.
... The Phillies swept the Cardinals. Suck on that, red-birds.
... Where did the Seattle Mariners come from?
... He's just incredible.
... Austin FC lost 1-0 to FC Dallas on Saturday night on a 97th minute goal. Not good.
... I can't even begin to tell you how good those Darwin Nunez goals felt on Sunday. It completely changed how I felt about the entire weekend. I know the outcomes of games shouldn't impact my moods, but I'm a maniac like the rest of you.
... Rest in peace, Bob Barker. You were a part of multiple generations of lives. I don't know anyone that disliked him.
No. 10 - The List: 80s Songs ...
This comes by special request from Ryan Crow at The Texas Card House.
I couldn't do this list without first breaking the best songs of the decade down by genre. I may or may not have stayed up until 3 a.m. on Saturday morning working on this section.
I'm prepared for the push back, so let's get started.
(p.s. - Ranking the pop songs was nearly impossible.)
Country
Honorable Mention: Kenny Rogers - Lady, Willie Nelson - "Always On My Mind", The Judds - Mama He's Crazy, Eddie Rabbitt - "I Love A Rainy Night", Merle Haggard & Willie Nelson - "Pancho & Lefty", George Strait - "All My Ex's Live In Texas", Dolly Parton & Kenny Rogers - "Islands In the Stream", Ronnie Milsap - "Smokey Mountain Rain", Keith Whitley - "Miami, My Amy", Randy Travis - "Forever and Ever, Amen", Dwight Yoakam - "Guitars and Cadillacs" and Keith Whitley - When You Say Nothing at All
10. Gary Stewart - An Empty Glass
9. George Strait - The Chair
8. Johnny Lee - Looking for Love
7. Roseanne Cash - Seven Year Ache
6. Keith Whitley - Don't Close Your Eyes
5. Robert Earl Keen - The Road Goes On Forever
4. Garth Brooks - If Tomorrow Never Comes
3. Ray Charles and Willie Nelson - Seven Spanish Angels
2. George Strait - Amarillo By Morning
1. George Jones - He Stopped Loving Her Today
Duets
Honorable Mention: Linda Ronstadt featuring Aaron Neville "Don't Know Much", Bill Medley and Jennifer Warnes - (I've Had the) Time of My Life, Aretha Franklin and George Michael "I Knew You Were Waiting (For Me)", Lionel Richie and Diana Ross - 'Endless Love', Joe Cocker and Jennifer Warnes - "Up Where We Belong" and Mike Reno and Ann Wilson "Almost Paradise"
10. Patti La Belle and Michael McDonald "On My Own"
9. Linda Ronstadt and James Ingram "Somewhere Out There"
8. Stevie Nicks and Don Henley "Leather and Lace"
7. Dolly Parton and Kenny Rogers "Islands in the Stream"
6. Aerosmith and Run-DMC "Walk This Way
5. Stevie Nicks with Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers "Stop Draggin' My Heart Around"
4. Philip Bailey and Phil Collins "Easy Lover"
3. Ray Charles and Willie Nelson "Seven Spanish Angels"
2. Dionne Warwick, Elton John, Stevie Wonder and Gladys Knight "That's What Friends Are For"
1. Patti Austin/James Ingram "Baby, Come To Me"
Hard Rock/Metal
Honorable Mention: Metallica -
Fade To Black, Iron Maiden – “Run To The Hills”, Def Leppard - "Pour Some Sugar On Me", Motley Crue - "Kickstart My Heart, Twisted Sister - "We're Not Going to Take It" and Iron Maiden - "Can I Play With Madness, ZZ Top - "Sharp Dressed Man"
10. Black Sabboth - Heaven and Hell
9. Guns N' Roses - Paradise City
8. Guns N Roses - Sweet Child O'Mine
7. Motörhead - Ace of Spades
6. Joan Jett - Bad Reputation
5. Ozzy Osbourne - Crazy Train
4. AC/DC - You Shook Me All Night Long
3. Metallica - Master of Puppets
2. AC/DC - Back In Black
1. Guns N' Roses - Welcome to the Jungle
Pop
Honorable Mention: Madonna
- Into The Groove
, Michael Jackson - Beat It, Prince - 1999, Chaka Khan - I Feel For You, Irene Cara - What a Feeeling, Rick Springfield - Jessie's Girl, David Bowie - Let's Dance, Soft Cell - Tainted Love, Madonna - Like a Prayer, Culture Club - Karma Chameleon, Cyndie Lauper - Time After Time, Denise Williams - Let's Hear It For The Boy, Kool and the Gang - Celebration, Paula Abdul - Straight Up, Lionel Richie - All Night Long, Michael Jackson - Rock With You, Michael Sembello - Maniac, Lisa Lisa and Cult Jam - Head to Toe, Cyndi Lauper - Girls Just Want to Have Fun, Prince - Kiss, Tears For Fears - Shout, Glenn Frey - "You Belong To The City", Dexy's Midnight Runners - "Come on Eileen", A-Ha - "Take On Me", Steve Miller Band - "Abracadabra", Billy Ocean - Carribbean Queen", DeBarge - Rhythm of the Night, Hall and Oats - "I Can't Go for That (No Can Do)", Hall and Oats - "You Make My Dreams", Katrina and The Waves - "Walking on Sunshine", Rockwell - "Somebody's Watching Me"
10. John Mellencamp - Hurts So Good
9. Cutting Crew - (I Just) Died in Your Arms Tonight
8. Hall and Oats - Maneater
7. Tina Turner - What's Love Got to Do With It?
6. Wham - Careless Whisper
5. Tears For Fears - Everybody Wants to Rule the World
4. Michael Jackson - Thriller
3. Prince - Let's Go Crazy
2. Michael Jackson - Billie Jean
1. Prince - When Doves Cry
Power Ballads
Honorable Mention: Aerosmith - What It Takes, Mr. Mister - Broken Wings, Night Ranger - Sister Christian, Aerosmith - Angel and Heart - Alone and Bonnie Tyler - Holding Out For a Hero, Poison - Every Rose Has Its Thorn, Jeff Healy Band - Angel Eyes
10. Foreigner - Waiting For a Girl Like You
9. Foreigner - I Wanna Know What Love Is
8. Billy Vera and The Beaters- At This Moment
7. Journey - Faithfully
6. Bon Jovi - Wanted: Dead or Alive
5. INXS - Never Tear Us Apart
4. Phil Collins - Against All Odds
3. Journey - Open Arms
2. Bonnie Tyler - Total Eclipse of the Heart
1, Prince - Purple Rain
Rap
Honorable Mention: Biz Markie – Just A Friend, N.W.A. - **** Tha Police, Kurtis Blow - The Breaks, Beastie Boys - Brass Monkey, LL Cool J - Rock the Bells, Tone-Lōc - Wild Thing, Run DMC - Sucker MCs, LL Cool J - I'm Bad and De La Soul - Me, Myself and I
10. Eric B. and Rakim - Paid in Full
9. Eazy E - Boyz N The Hood
8. LL Cool J - Going Back to Cali
7. Beastie Boys - Paul Revere
6. Rob Base & DJ EZ Rock – It Takes Two
5. Run DMC - Rock Box
4. Kool Moe Dee – How Ya Like Me Now
3. Grandmaster Flash and The Furious Five - The Message
2. Public Enemy - Fight the Power
1. N.W.A. - Straight Outta Compton
R&B
Honorable Mention: Pointer Sisters - I'm So Excited, Luther Vandross - Never Too Much, Billy Ocean - There'll Be Sad Songs, Sade - The Sweetest Taboo, Keith Sweat - I Want Her, Whitney Houston - How Will I Know, Lionel Richie - Hello and Bobby Brown - Don't Be Cruel, Pointer Sisters - Jump, Pointer Sisters - I'm So Excited and Hall and Oats - One on One
10. Stevie Wonder - Part Time Lover
9. Pointer Sisters - Slow Hand
8. Janet Jackson - Rhythm Nation
7. Sade - Smooth Operator
6. Luther Vandross - Here and Now
5. Whitney Houston - Greatest Love of All
4. Bobby Brown - My Prerogative
3. Rick James - Super Freak
2. Whitney Houston - I Wanna Dance With Somebody
1. Marvin Gaye - Sexual Healing
Rock
Honorable Mention: Billy Idol - Rebel Yell, The Cure - Just Like Heaven, Aerosmith - Dude Looks like a Lady, Genesis - Invisible Touch, U2 - I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For, U2 - Sunday Bloody Sunday, Joan Jett - I Love Rock and Roll, Leonard Cohen, ‘Hallelujah’, Journey - Don't Stop Believing, Tom Petty - Free Fallin', Queen - Another One Bites the Dust, Bob Marley - Redemption Song, Billy Idol - White Wedding and Survivor - Eye of the Tiger, INXS - Need You Tonight, INXS - New Sensation, Steely Dan - Hey Nineteen, George Thorogood - Bad to the Bone
10. Whitesnake - Here I Go Again
9. Stevie Nicks - Edge of Seventeen
8. Bruce Springsteen - Born In the U.S.A
7. Phil Collins - In The Air Tonight
6. Van Halen - Jump
5. Toto - Africa
4. Bon Jovi - Living on a Prayer
3. Tom Petty - Refugee
2. U2 - With or Without You
1. The Police - Every Breath You Take
The Overall Top 10 Songs of the 80s
10. Michael Jackson - Thriller
9. Prince - Let's Go Crazy
8. The Police - Every Breath You Take
7. Guns N' Roses - Welcome to the Jungle
6. Whitney Houston - I Wanna Dance With Somebody
5. Marvin Gaye - Sexual Healing
4. N.W.A. - Straight Outta Compton
3. Michael Jackson - Billie Jean
2. Prince - When Doves Cry
1. George Jones - He Stopped Loving Her Today
. I am not here to tell you what you don’t know. Mildly amused you would address me on it.
